Coronado Global Resources Inc (ASX: CRN) is an ASX small-cap stock that has endured a tough 12 months.
Its stock price is down 44% in that span.
However, it has had a red hot start to 2026.
Since the start of the new year, its share price has risen from $0.36 to $0.42.
That's good for a rise of more than 16%.
Image source: Getty Images
Why is the share price up to start the year?
This ASX small-cap stock is the largest pure-play met coal producer delivering into global export markets.
The key tailwind for Coronado Global Resources is the rebound in metallurgical coal prices.
Coking coal has risen to around US$230/t, up sharply over the past month and more than 16% higher year-on-year.
The recovery reflects tighter supply, improving steel demand, higher blast furnace utilisation, and inventory restocking, alongside production and logistics constraints in key export regions.
As a pure-play metallurgical coal producer, Coronado is well positioned to benefit. Higher prices likely translate quickly into stronger earnings due to its operating leverage.
The rally to start the year is despite a single day drop of more than 11% after a fatal incident at its Curragh operations in Queensland.
The coal producer's share price fell 11.11% on the 5th of January to a one-month low of 28 cents.
What is Bell Potter's view?
Between coal price tailwinds and operational faults, it can be hard to pinpoint fair value for this ASX small-cap.
However in a new report from Bell Potter yesterday, the broker upgraded its near-term coal price outlook.
Hard coking coal is now expected to average US$220/t in 2026 (up from US$190), US$210/t in 2027 (from US$190), and US$195/t in 2028 (from US$180).
Thermal coal forecasts have also been raised to US$110/t in 2026 (from US$100) and US$100/t in 2027-28. Long-term price assumptions are unchanged.
While Bell Potter has slightly reduced production forecasts due to recent operating performance, the higher coal price outlook materially improves earnings.
Losses in 2025 are marginally smaller, and profits are now expected in 2026 and 2027, representing a significant upgrade to previous forecasts.
Increased target price
Based on this guidance, Bell Potter has maintained a speculative hold recommendation on this ASX small-cap stock, recognising balance sheet risks.
In the near-term, operational performance is set to lift with the ramp-up of Mammoth underground and the Buchanan expansion projects, supporting production volumes and lower unit costs.
Coronado Global Resources shares closed yesterday at $0.42 each.
Bell Potter has an updated price target of $0.47 (previously $0.33).
Based on this target, there is an estimated upside of 11.90%.
