Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) shares have had an excellent start to 2026.
Since New Year's Day, its stock price has jumped more than 12%.
Whitehaven Coal is a leading Australian coal producer.
Investors have been gobbling up Whitehaven Coal shares to start the year for a combination of reasons:
- The outlook for long-term coal demand is getting a big boost as China prepares to launch more than 100 coal-fired power generators that are expected to supply electricity across the globe this year.
- Broader investment in ASX energy sector.
- Whitehaven Coal continues sound operational results despite challenging conditions.
These factors have helped push Whitehaven Coal shares higher, and for brokers to adjust near-term outlooks.
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Bell Potter updates near-term coal price outlook
Whitehaven Coal's main focus is in the Gunnedah Basin in northwest New South Wales, where it operates six mines – five open cut and one underground. It operates one in the Bowen Basin of QLD.
In a new report from Bell Potter yesterday, the broker said in 2026 to-date, extreme weather conditions have impacted supply across the Bowen Basin and logistics chain resulting in elevated shipping queues at Queensland's coal export terminals.
The report also noted that the Newcastle thermal coal benchmark has remained relatively subdued, averaging US$108/t in the December 2025 quarter (down 2% QoQ, spot US$109/t) with strong quarterly shipments out of the Port of Newcastle of 42Mt.
This is the highest level since the September 2021 quarter.
Bell Potter has raised its short-term coal price forecasts, which is supportive for Whitehaven Coal's earnings in the next few years. Long-term assumptions remain unchanged.
We have tapered our production outlook across the forecast period in line with recent operational performance. Together with the coal price update, EPS changes are: FY26 +99%; FY27 +75%; and FY28 +49%.
Investment outlook for Whitehaven Coal shares
Whitehaven Coal shares closed trading yesterday at $8.80 each.
This is a rise of almost 40% in the last year.
Bell Potter has raised its price target to $8.40 (previously $7.00).
However the broker has a hold recommendation based on its current valuation.
The broker said the miner is positioned to capitalise on improved coal markets with its portfolio of operating and development assets that are diversified by product (met/thermal) and location (Queensland/New South Wales).
We have a positive long term met coal outlook, driven by constrained supply and increased demand from steel producers reliant on seaborne met coal (i.e. India). We maintain a Hold rating given WHC's current market valuation.
