Owning National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares usually means receiving a good level of passive income each year. But, dividend payouts are not guaranteed.
ASX bank shares usually trade on a relatively low price/earnings (P/E) ratio and are fairly generous with their dividend payout ratio. That can result in a solid dividend yield.
NAB faces strong competition in Australia, with some businesses like Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) wanting to take some of the bank's market share in the business banking space. Let's see how analysts think the dividends could play out in the coming months.
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First, FY26
We're currently in the 2026 financial year, so investors won't have to wait too long to find out what the dividend payments are going to be in the months ahead.
Following multiple RBA rate cuts over the last 12 months, demand for loans has picked up, and this is a useful tailwind for earnings for NAB (and other banks). Not only that, but a lower interest rate also helps reduce the risk of loan defaults for borrowers.
But, rate cuts can be a negative for the net interest margin (NIM) of an ASX bank share because it can't earn as much on the no-interest transaction accounts when it lends out that money to borrowers.
In terms of the dividend, the projection on CMC Invest suggests investors are going to get a stable payout in the 2026 financial year (compared to FY25). The forecast implies the business could pay an annual dividend of $1.70 per NAB share.
That level of payment would translate into a grossed-up dividend yield of 5.7%, including franking credits, at the time of writing. That's not the biggest payout around, but it's noticeably better than the term deposits NAB offers.
Next, FY27
For investors hoping for dividend growth, the FY26 projection may be disappointing.
But, earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase in the 2027 financial year, which is a useful driver of funding larger dividends.
The forecast on CMC Invest for the dividend is $1.705 per share. That would only represent a year-over-year increase of 0.3%, but it's better than nothing.
If owners of NAB shares do receive that, it'd be a grossed-up dividend yield of 5.7%, including franking credits, at the time of writing.
Finally, FY28
In the 2028 financial year, investors may finally start seeing a noticeable increase of the payout.
The projection on CMC Invest suggests the business could pay an annual dividend of $1.72 per NAB share. That would represent an annual increase of 0.9% year -over-year. This would be a grossed-up dividend yield of 5.75%, including franking credits, at the time of writing.
It's certainly not one of the first ASX shares I'd buy for dividends based on the payouts.
