Goldman Sachs upgraded its 12-month share price forecasts on BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) and Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) this week.
As many commodity prices race higher, taking mining stocks with them, Goldman is among many brokers updating their price targets.
Goldman's new targets reveal it thinks one of these ASX 200 mining giants will rip, while the other will dip in the new year ahead.
Let's review.
Forecast for BHP vs. Fortescue shares in 2026
BHP is the largest ASX 200 mining share with diversified operations encompassing iron ore, copper, and met coal.
The miner also has a nickel mining operation in care and maintenance since mid-2024, and is building a potash project in Canada.
Fortescue is the second-largest ASX 200 mining share.
It's a pure-play iron ore business with a young green energy division focused on hydrogen and ammonia.
Why are BHP and Fortescue shares rising in 2026?
Of course, the iron ore price heavily impacts both BHP and Fortescue share prices.
Over the past 12 months, the iron ore price has risen by 7% amid uncertainty in China's economy.
Meanwhile, the copper price has streaked ahead.
Copper futures are up 37% over the past 12 months and reached a record above US$6 per pound last week.
This is highly relevant to the BHP share price, given the miner is now the world's largest copper producer.
The met coal price has also lifted 27% and potash has lifted 24% over the past 12 months.
While BHP's nickel operations are on hold, a 13% annual lift in the nickel price also bodes well for the share price.
BHP intends to review its decision to temporarily suspend Western Australia Nickel within 12 months.
As for share price growth, BHP hit a two-year high of $49.75 per share on Thursday.
Meanwhile, Fortescue shares hit an 18-month high of $23.38 on 11 December.
The Fortescue share price traded close to that level this week.
The ASX 200 mining share reached $23.10 on Thursday and $23.35 in the previous week.
So, which will rip and which will dip?
Goldman is among three brokers who think the BHP share price will return to the $50-plus range in the new year.
This is significant because the BHP share price has not been above $50 since January 2024.
In fact, the all-time record high for BHP shares is just over that threshold at $50.84, reached on 28 December 2023.
Last week, Bank of America reiterated its buy rating on BHP shares and raised its 12-month price target from $49 to $56.
Also last week, Barclays maintained a hold rating on BHP shares with a price target of $50.22.
This week, Goldman Sachs maintained a buy rating on BHP and lifted its target from $48.10 to $57.70.
That's the highest BHP share price target we have seen to date.
In short, Goldman foresees that the BHP share price will rip in 2026.
The new target price implies a potential upside of about 18% from where BHP shares closed yesterday.
With Fortescue shares, Goldman Sachs foresees a dip in 2026.
This week, Goldman Sachs reiterated its hold rating on Fortescue shares.
The broker raised its 12-month price target from $19.30 to $22.70.
This implies a minor downside of 0.5% from where Fortescue shares closed on Friday.
