The WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) share price has been through a bruising period. After peaking in late 2024, the stock is now down close to 50% from its highs.
But as we move through January, I think the setup is starting to look very different. If a few key things fall into place this year, WiseTech could surprise investors in 2026.
What went wrong in 2025?
There is no denying that 2025 was a difficult year for WiseTech.
The company was affected by governance concerns, media scrutiny, and an ASIC investigation, which weighed heavily on investor sentiment. While no charges have been laid, the uncertainty alone was enough to compress the valuation of a stock that previously traded on a premium multiple.
At the same time, WiseTech embarked on one of the most significant changes in its history. It completed the large e2open acquisition and announced a major shift to its CargoWise commercial model. That combination created execution risk at a time when confidence was already fragile.
For a market that values predictability, it was simply too much at once.
Why 2026 could look very different for the WiseTech share price
Looking ahead, I think the WiseTech story becomes much clearer.
First, leadership stability has returned. Zubin Appoo is now firmly established as CEO, with a clear mandate to sharpen execution, improve productivity, and deliver on strategy. Richard White has stepped back into a focused innovation role, which addresses key person risk concerns raised by investors last year.
Second, the new CargoWise Value Packs model is now live. This is a big deal. WiseTech is moving away from a complex seat-based pricing structure toward a simpler, more scalable transactional model. If it works as intended, it should deepen customer penetration, improve monetisation of AI-driven features, and reduce friction in global rollouts.
Third, the e2open acquisition materially expands WiseTech's addressable market. The business is no longer just the operating system for freight forwarders. It is increasingly positioning itself as an end-to-end platform across global trade, supply chain planning, and execution. That opens the door to a much larger long-term growth opportunity.
The role of AI and product execution
One area I think the market may be underestimating is WiseTech's progress on AI.
CargoWise already sits at the centre of enormous volumes of real-world logistics data. Management is embedding AI directly into workflows, from customs classification and compliance to exception handling and container optimisation. This is not experimental AI. It is productivity-focused automation tied directly to customer outcomes.
If WiseTech can demonstrate that these tools materially reduce costs and improve throughput for customers, pricing power should follow.
Guidance matters from here
Ultimately, the bull case hinges on delivery.
WiseTech has reaffirmed its FY26 guidance, despite the integration costs associated with e2open and short-term margin pressure. If management can meet that guidance, execute the commercial model transition smoothly, and avoid further controversies, investor confidence could return quickly.
Given how far the share price has already fallen, it would not take much positive surprise to drive outperformance.
Foolish Takeaway
WiseTech Global remains a high-quality global software business operating in an industry that is only becoming more complex. The problems of 2025 were real, but they also appear addressable.
For investors willing to accept some risk, I think the WiseTech Global share price could genuinely shock on the upside in 2026 if execution improves and the narrative stabilises.
