Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares are in the green in these early days of 2026.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) airline closed up 0.29% on Thursday, trading for $10.51 each. That puts the share price up 1.25% since the 31 December close.
Taking a step back, Qantas shares have gained 13.25% since this time last year, outpacing the 4.45% returns delivered by the benchmark index.
And that doesn't include the two fully franked dividends Qantas paid eligible stockholders over this time. At Thursday's closing price, the ASX 200 airline trades on a fully franked 5% trailing dividend yield.
Now here's why I think this forecast from Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) could offer some welcome tailwinds for the airline in 2026.
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How a rising Aussie dollar could boost Qantas shares
As you may be aware, April saw the Aussie dollar fall to a five-year low against the greenback. The Aussie was then trading for 59.22 US cents amid heightened fears of United States President Donald Trump's global tariff campaign.
On Thursday, the Aussie dollar was fetching 67.20 US cents, up 13.5% since those April lows.
Qantas shares have also soared higher since then, with shares now up 31% since 9 April.
And CBA expects further strengthening in the Aussie dollar in 2026.
"The Aussie typically does well against most currencies when the world economy is in a cyclical upswing," CBA said.
The bank added that expected US tax cuts and US Fed interest rate cuts (while the RBA is looking at lifting rates) are also likely to help boost the Aussie dollar against the US dollar.
"If tariff fears ease and US tax cuts support growth," CBA said, the Australian dollar could hit 73 US cents in 2026.
As for the potential impact on Qantas shares, CBA noted that this could have "a major impact on the large number of Australians with plans for overseas travel".
CBA said that over the two-week Black Friday spending period, travel spending hit $2.2 billion, up 8.4% year on year.
"What kind of bang they get for their buck, though, is tied directly to the Aussie dollar's value," CBA said of international travellers.
The bank added:
The outlook for the Australian economy is positive, and despite 2025's unwanted inflation surprises, jobs figures often beat expectations and indicated a labour market at or near full employment.
While a stronger Aussie dollar could see fewer international bookings into Australia, I believe the overall impact on travel demand should weigh in Qantas' favour.
Billion-dollar jet fuel bills
Atop the potential increase in Australian travellers, a stronger Aussie dollar could also help boost Qantas shares via lower jet fuel costs.
Oil, as you likely know, is priced in US dollars.
And we're not talking about a few thousand dollars here.
Qantas expects its first half FY 2026 fuel costs to come in at $2.6 billion, so even another 10% appreciation in the Australian dollar could have a material impact on the airline's bottom line.
