Owning Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares typically means receiving a good dividend each year. But, the size of the dividend over the next few years could be influential for investors who are deciding whether to make an investment.
CBA is still capable of producing loan growth and profit growth. However, it's now a huge bank, so future growth may not be as compelling as the last 10 to 15 years. With that in mind, the dividends could play an important role in its appeal and overall returns for Australians.
Let's look at the forecasts of where experts think the dividends for owners of CBA shares could go over the next few years.
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First, FY26
The 2026 financial year is the one we're currently in and is just over halfway. In February, we'll learn how much profit CBA made in the six months to December 2025 and the size of the interim dividend.
For the annual FY26 result, the projection on CMC Markets suggests that the ASX bank share's earnings per share (EPS) could rise slightly and this could fund a 2% hike of the dividend payout to $4.95 per CBA share.
This projection translates into a potential grossed-up dividend yield of 4.6%, including the franking credits.
Then, FY27
In the next financial year, the estimate on CMC Markets suggests that net profit could increase at a pace that's a little faster.
Pleasingly, stronger profit growth is expected to translate into a bigger dividend increase. In the 2027 financial year, the expert projection suggests the bank could deliver a 3% rise in its payout to $5.10 per share.
At the time of writing, the projected potential payout would equate to a grossed-up dividend yield of 4.75%, including franking credits.
Finally, FY28
Steady progression is expected to continue for owners of CBA shares in FY28.
While rapid growth isn't forecast, that may not be what investors are looking for from the ASX bank share. Steady and dependable may be what some Australian investors are after.
The profit projection on CMC Markets suggests EPS could rise approximately 5% to $6.73. This could pay for a measly 1% rise in the payout to $5.155 per share. This forecast dividend would translate into a grossed-up dividend yield of 4.8%, including franking credits.
Is the CBA share price a buy?
All nine of the recent analyst recommendations on the ASX bank share are a sell, according to CMC Markets. There is consensus among experts that CBA shares are overvalued, with an average price target suggesting it could fall by more than 20% over the next year. While existing shareholders don't have to sell, it could be wise to invest new money in other available opportunities.
