If you've been paying attention to the news lately, you could be forgiven for feeling uneasy about the outlook for share markets.
Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, trade tariffs are in the headlines, and concerns about an AI-driven bubble refuse to go away. Against that backdrop, the idea of a market crash in 2026 doesn't sound far-fetched. It's certainly not off the table.
Do I think a crash is guaranteed? No. Do I think it's possible? Absolutely.
But despite all of that, my plan is surprisingly simple.
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I'm not trying to predict a crash
One thing I've learned over time is that worrying about market crashes is rarely productive.
Every year, there's no shortage of experts warning that disaster is just around the corner. One day, someone will be right. Markets do crash from time to time. The problem is that markets also spend far more time going up than going down.
If you'd stayed on the sidelines over the past few years waiting for the inevitable crash, you would have missed out on some extraordinary returns. That's the opportunity cost most crash predictions fail to mention.
Trying to time the market requires being right twice: when to get out, and when to get back in. Very few people manage that consistently.
What I plan to do instead
Rather than making big, emotional decisions based on headlines, I plan to keep doing what I've always done.
I'll continue investing regularly, buying ASX shares I believe can grow earnings and compound value over time. That doesn't change just because volatility might increase or sentiment turns negative.
Great businesses don't stop being great because markets fall. If anything, periods of uncertainty tend to create opportunities for disciplined investors.
Preparing without panicking
That said, doing nothing doesn't mean doing nothing at all.
I also plan to keep some cash on the sidelines. Not because I'm convinced a crash is coming, but because optionality has value. If markets were to sell off sharply, I want the flexibility to invest more aggressively when prices are lower.
This approach gives me the best of both worlds. I stay invested and allow my existing holdings to compound, while also being prepared to take advantage of opportunities if fear takes over.
Importantly, I'm not holding cash instead of investing. I'm holding cash alongside investing.
Why I'm not losing sleep over 2026
Markets have always faced reasons to fall. Wars, recessions, bubbles, pandemics, inflation scares. None of this is new. And yet, over long periods, share markets have continued to move higher.
That doesn't mean the path will be smooth. There will be drawdowns, corrections, and moments where headlines feel overwhelming. But history suggests that patience and consistency are far more powerful than prediction.
Foolish Takeaway
Could the share market crash in 2026? It could.
But worrying about it won't improve my returns, and acting on fear could easily make them worse. So instead of trying to outsmart the market, I plan to stay invested, keep buying quality ASX shares, and let them flourish.
If a crash comes, I'll be ready. If it doesn't, I'll still be invested. Either way, I'm comfortable with my plan.
