Why I'm bullish on the BHP share price as copper prices surge

Iron ore gets the headlines, but copper is the real long-term story at BHP.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points
  • BHP's focus on copper, driven by record-high prices, positions it at the forefront of crucial modern industries like electrification and renewable energy.
  • Despite rising demand, copper supply struggles with slow project developments, making BHP's assets like Escondida and South Australia's copper province highly strategic.
  • BHP's diversification into other commodities provides financial stability, allowing it to capitalise on copper opportunities while managing investment risks.

When most investors think about BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP), iron ore usually gets the spotlight. It is still a critical part of the story, but it is no longer the part that excites me the most.

That honour belongs to copper.

With copper prices hitting a record high this month, I think the market is being reminded of something BHP has been quietly building for years.

That is a portfolio that's increasingly leveraged to one of the most important metals of the modern economy.

Smiling miner.

Image source: Getty Images

Copper demand

Copper sits at the centre of several powerful structural trends.

Electrification, renewable energy, electric vehicles, data centres, and artificial intelligence all require vast amounts of copper. In fact, many of these technologies are significantly more copper-intensive than the systems they are replacing.

What makes this particularly compelling is that supply growth has struggled to keep pace. New copper projects are expensive, complex, and slow to bring online. Furthermore, grades are declining, permitting is harder, and geopolitical risks are rising.

The combination of rising demand and constrained supply is exactly what long-term investors should be paying attention to.

BHP shares are one of the best ways to play copper

BHP isn't just exposed to copper; it is becoming increasingly defined by it.

The company already owns some of the world's most important copper assets. This includes Escondida in Chile and a growing copper province in South Australia. Operationally, copper production has been trending higher, supported by improved throughput and ongoing investment in productivity and expansion projects.

More importantly, BHP isn't standing still. Management has been clear about its ambition to grow copper output further over time, with a pipeline of options across existing operations and future developments. That gives the company leverage not just to today's copper price, but to where prices could sit over the next decade.

A diversified base

What I particularly like about BHP is that this copper upside sits within a diversified mining giant.

Iron ore, metallurgical coal, and other commodities continue to generate enormous cash flows, helping fund growth while supporting dividends and balance sheet strength. It is also busy developing the enormous Jansen potash project, which is due to go live in mid-2027.

That diversification matters. It allows BHP to invest counter-cyclically, rather than being forced to pull back at exactly the wrong time.

In other words, I see copper as providing the upside, while the broader portfolio helps manage the risk.

Strong execution

A bullish commodity view only really works if the company can execute, and BHP has been doing exactly that.

Its operational performance has been solid, maintenance programs have been delivered on schedule, and major assets continue to operate at the lower end of the global cost curve. That cost discipline is critical in mining. It means higher prices flow through more cleanly to profits and cash flow.

It also gives BHP more flexibility to keep investing through the cycle, rather than chasing growth at the top.

What this means for the BHP share price

I don't see the BHP share price as a speculative copper bet. I see the company as a high-quality, large-cap miner that is increasingly aligned with where the global economy is heading.

If copper prices remain elevated or continue to rise as demand accelerates, BHP is well placed to benefit. And if conditions soften, its scale, diversification, and balance sheet provide a buffer many pure-play copper producers simply don't have.

Foolish Takeaway

I believe the BHP share price remains one of the most attractive long-term mining investments on the ASX. With world-class copper assets, a clear growth pathway, and the financial strength to execute, BHP offers investors exposure to one of the most important commodities of the future, without taking on undue risk.

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended BHP Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Resources Shares

Three satisfied miners with their arms crossed looking at the camera proudly
Resources Shares

5 ASX mining shares to buy: experts

The global oil shock is a headwind for mining but long-term growth drivers remain in place.

Read more »

Two miners dressed in hard hats and high vis gear standing at an outdoor mining site discussing a mineral find with one holding a rock and the other looking at a tablet.
Resources Shares

Liontown shares climb to 2.5-year high on record cash flow

Here's what analysts think of the lithium miner's shares right now.

Read more »

Woman with a concerned look on her face holding a credit card and smartphone.
Resources Shares

Why Lotus Resources shares just fell 22% and how I'm thinking about it

Production issues and uncertainty have shaken confidence, though there are still signs the broader restart story is moving in the…

Read more »

Two mining workers in orange high vis vests walk and talk at a mining site.
Resources Shares

Morgans tips 1 ASX mining share to rip — and 1 to avoid — in 2026

Morgans has revised its ratings on an ASX 200 lithium share and an ASX 200 gold stock.

Read more »

A woman is very excited about something she's just seen on her computer, clenching her fists and smiling broadly.
Resources Shares

Mineral Resources shares jump 7% on guidance upgrade

Mineral Resources lifts guidance again, sending its share price higher.

Read more »

Pile of copper pipes.
Resources Shares

This major ASX copper company just reported record earnings but warned on diesel prices

A sixth quarter of earnings growth has just been notched up.

Read more »

A man wearing a hard hat and high visibility vest looks out over a vast plain.
Resources Shares

This ASX 200 mining stock is sinking 8% after a big project update. Here's why

A major Hermosa update has South32 shares falling today.

Read more »

A man in a hard hat and high visibility vest holds his thumb up in a gesture of confidence with heavy moving equipment in the background as on a mine site as the Chalice Mining share price rises today.
Resources Shares

Liontown posts record net cash flow and hits underground mining targets

Liontown posts its strongest financial quarter since production began, achieving $33 million net cash flow and hitting key operational milestones.

Read more »