The Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) share price had a strong finish to 2025, rising by 35% in the last six months, as the chart below shows.
Of course, past performance is not necessarily a reliable indicator of future performance, particularly when it comes to an ASX mining share like Fortescue. It's common for resource prices to bounce around, so it can be harder to predict what's going to happen with a commodity company.
Let's take a look at what experts are predicting could happen for this major miner.
Fortescue share price target
A share price target is an analyst's projection of where they think the share price could be in 12 months following the investment call.
There are a number of analysts who have an opinion on the company. According to CMC Markets, of the 11 ratings on Fortescue, there are two buy ratings, seven hold ratings, and two sell ratings.
Of those 11 ratings, the average price target is reportedly $20. That means analysts are suggesting the Fortescue share price could fall by around 10% from where it is today. Therefore, a group of analysts are collectively suggesting that 2026 is likely to be a poor year for the ASX mining share.
But that potential return was just the average view. There's both a potential better outcome and possibly a much worse outcome, based on analyst price targets.
On the positive side of things, one broker thinks the Fortescue share price could rise another 4% from its current level.
But one analyst thinks the ASX mining share could fall by 27% within the next year.
Expert view on the iron ore price
Iron ore is integral for Fortescue because it's responsible for virtually all of the company's earnings.
Pleasingly, the iron ore price has been sitting above US$100 per tonne in the last few months, allowing Fortescue to generate solid monthly profits.
Broker UBS recently said in a note that it expected the iron ore price to "remain ~$100/t over the next six months with demand stable and incremental supply growth modest". The broker said the new African iron ore project, Simandou, is expected to add more supply in the second half of 2026.
In the medium term, UBS expects that the iron ore market will move into surplus supply, leading to the iron ore price trending "back to around the 90th percentile". In other words, the iron ore miners from across the world with the highest mining costs may no longer be profitable, though that doesn't include Fortescue – it is one of the world's most efficient iron ore miners.
The broker predicts that the iron ore price could reduce to around US$90 per tonne in 2027. Fortescue would still be very profitable at that level, but its earnings would be noticeably reduced compared to today, and that would likely impact the Fortescue share price.
