With a new boss in place, are Karoon Energy shares a buy, hold or sell?

With a new Managing Director in place, what are the prospects for Karoon Energy shares according to Macquarie?

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Key points

  • Macquarie analysts have met with the new Karoon Energy Managing Director.
  • They say she has a positive leadership style and a focus on shareholder value.
  • They have retained a neutral outlook on Karoon shares.

Back in late October, Karoon Energy Ltd (ASX: KAR) announced that Carri Lockhart would take on the top role as Managing Director of the company, with a remit to oversee a major evolution in its operations.

As the company said at the time:

This marks a significant leadership transition as Karoon prepares to take over the operatorship of the Bauna FPSO in Brazil and progress its organic growth opportunities in both Brazil and the US, as well as managing key farm-downs and creating value from the strategic exploration acreage in the Southern Santos Basin.

Ms Lockhart, the company said, brought "extensive global experience in oil and gas with more than 30 years of experience in the energy industry, most recently at Equinor ASA and prior to that, at Marathon Oil Company".

New leadership gets a tick

The Macquarie team, in a note to clients, said they had met with Ms Lockhart and chair Peter Botten, and said she "appears likely to bring improved technology and operational efficiency focus on Karoon's production assets (particularly in Brazil where is operates with 100% equity)''.

They added that she also appeared to have a focus on shareholder value.

Macquarie has a neutral recommendation on Karoon Energy shares, unchanged from before they met with Ms Lockhart, but the analysts said they were "encouraged" by her leadership style.

Macquarie's 12-month price target on the shares is $1.65 compared with $1.55 at the close of trade on Wednesday.

Factoring in the dividend yield, this would represent a total shareholder return of 7.1%.

Macquarie also cut its expectations for financial year production to 8.2 million barrels of oil equivalent, which the analysts said would be about a 20% decline year on year.

Karoon, in its most recent quarterly report, said calendar 2025 production guidance had been narrowed to 9.7-10.5 million barrels of oil equivalent, from the previous guidance of 9.8-10.4.

Growth assets developing

The company at the time also stated that it had been successful in bidding for a new offshore exploration block, approximately 70km east of its existing offshore blocks in the Santos Basin off the Brazilian coast.

As the company said at the time:

Through prudent bidding in the last three Brazil licensing rounds Karron has acquired an extensive but relatively low-cost position with no well commitments, over what we believe may be a potentially significant new … exploration play.

Karoon shares were steady at $1.55 on Thursday. The company was valued at $1.12 billion at the close of trade on Wednesday.

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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