Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) shares have been a compelling investment over the long-term. The global financial institution has successfully expanded across the world with its asset management, commodities and global markets (CGM) and investment banking divisions.
The business is one of the few large ASX shares that have managed to build a worldwide business and not just be a local leader.
To me, the most impressive thing about Macquarie is how rapidly it's growing in the domestic banking sector. It's growing both its loan balance and deposit balance at an impressive annualised double-digit rate.
If Macquarie's banking segment continues growing at this pace, the 'big four' ASX bank share grouping could become the big five. This could be a key driver of Macquarie's earnings in the coming years.
Let's take a look at how much the profit is projected to rise between now and 2030.
FY26
The bank's FY26 first-half result with net profit of $1.7 billion was a miss by 10%, according to broker UBS, though the dividend of $2.80 was an increase compared to the payout of $2.60 per share.
UBS explained that higher costs in the CGM division was the driver of the earnings miss. Other headlines from the result were the transfer of green energy assets into corporate with an impairment of around $150 million, as well as the earlier-than-expected recognition of performance fees within Macquarie Asset Management (MAM).
The broker called Macquarie a "quality compounder but finds itself in a soft patch".
Even so, the business is predicted to grow its net profit to $4.08 billion in the 2026 financial year.
FY27
Following a somewhat challenging year in FY27, the broker is predicting that the business could deliver rising profits in each of the subsequent years.
The start of the 2027 financial year is not that far away. UBS predicts that the business could make $4.4 billion of net profit in FY27.
FY28
The 2028 financial year could get even better for owners of Macquarie shares, if the predictions come true.
UBS predicts that Macquarie could make net profit of $4.6 billion in the 2028 financial year.
FY29
Pleasingly, in the 2029 financial year, the business is projected to see the business generate $5.17 billion of net profit.
FY30
The final financial year of this series of projections could be the strongest for investors.
Its net profit is forecast to rise to $5.5 billion in FY30, which would represent an increase of 35.6% between FY26 and FY30.
