Harvey Norman Holdings (ASX: HVN) had a blistering run in 2025, with its share price zooming more than 50 per cent higher to $7.06 at the time of writing.
Harvey Norman shares smashed expectations and delivered results that even surprised the most sceptical investor.
To put it in context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) only gained 4% in value in the past 12 months.
What's behind this dusty old Aussie retail heavyweight doing a sprint, and can it keep it up in 2026?
Stability through property
Harvey Norman is a multi-sided retailer that relies on three pillars: Australian franchise operations, 120 overseas stores, and a retail property portfolio comprising over 100 retail complexes.
The ASX retailer sets itself apart from the competition with its $4.4 billion property portfolio. This adds value but also provides the company and its shareholders with stability.
Harvey Norman's results in 2025 have genuinely impressed. In August, the company reported a substantial increase in net income and earnings per share compared to the previous year, highlighting improved performance and stronger shareholder returns. The results exceeded analysts' expectations.
More recently, aggregated sales in early FY26 are running hot, with figures showing around 9 per cent growth year-on-year. That's not bad in a retail environment where consumers can be fickle.
Share buybacks and capital discipline
Harvey Norman hasn't just sat back and watched its stock rally. The company actively puts its money where its mouth is. It extended a massive on-market share buyback program, aiming to repurchase up to 10% of its shares.
That's the kind of move that gets investors going. Reducing float can help support the share price while signalling management's confidence that Harvey Norman shares are undervalued or poised for more growth.
What next for Harvey Norman shares?
No retail stock is bulletproof, and Harvey Norman will face headwinds if consumer sentiment cools.
However, with solid sales momentum, shareholder-friendly capital moves, and ongoing supportive analyst views, the ingredients are on the table for Harvey Norman shares to keep climbing into 2026.
Analysts are positive on the outlook for the retailer. It looks like even after this year's share price rally, any stock purchased right now can still benefit from a profit.
TradingView data shows that most analysts recommend a hold or (strong) buy. Some expect the ASX 200 stock to climb as high as $8.40, which implies a 19% upside at the time of writing.
However, the average share price target for the next 12 months is $7.51. That still suggests a possible gain of almost 6.6%.
Bell Potter believes Harvey Norman shares are undervalued based on its positive growth-outlook. It currently has a buy rating and $8.30 price target on its shares.
