Tungsten is not a household name amongst strategic metals on the ASX.
But its importance on the global stage seems to be rapidly coming into focus.
The metal is already classified as a critical mineral by the US, UK, and Australia, reflecting its key role in defence, aerospace, electronics, and advanced manufacturing.
This designation is also driven by growing geopolitical supply risk.
In 2024, China accounted for more than 80% of the world's tungsten output.
And earlier this year, Beijing announced export controls on the metal, heightening concerns for defence and technology industries across Western nations.
These concerns now appear to be materialising, with the European tungsten market experiencing significant supply disruptions in recent weeks.
As a result, ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices have soared to record levels, shining a light on tungsten's significance.
And against this backdrop, one ASX mining stock could be well-positioned to benefit.
Strategic ASX mining stock
Tungsten Mining NL (ASX: TGN) is a mineral exploration business advancing its flagship Mt Mulgine tungsten project in Western Australia.
The company believes Mt Mulgine represents one of the world's largest tungsten deposits outside of China.
Last month, results from a scoping study hinted at a long-term and low-cost mining operation, prompting management to label the project "globally significant".
And the market responded accordingly.
Over the past month, shares in the ASX mining stock have jumped by 91% to $0.21 apiece at Friday's close.
For context, the All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) gained less than 1% over the same period.
Tungsten Mining's strategic position within the global tungsten market also caught the eye of Sydney-based financial services firm MST Financial.
MST Financial viewpoint
MST Financial initiated coverage of the company last week, highlighting significant upside potential for its share price.
The broker emphasised that Tungsten Mining offers rare exposure to exploration and development in a tungsten market facing supply shortages.
It believes other investment opportunities offering comparable exposure are limited.
The broker also highlighted Mt Mulgine's potential to support a large-scale and long-life operation.
It added that the project hosts sizeable quantities of molybdenum as a co-product, which the ASX mining stock plans to mine. This further enhances its critical minerals profile.
The global molybdenum market is similarly concentrated, with China responsible for more than 40% of primary production and downstream refining.
Separately, MST Financial noted that China has become a net importer of tungsten concentrates, adding further pressure to global supply.
More broadly, the broker believes that Chinese export restrictions could underpin potential critical minerals funding to support new tungsten sources.
Tungsten Mining share price in focus
MST Financial has valued Tungsten Mining at $0.67 per share under its conservative commodity price scenario.
This implies 219% upside potential from Friday's closing price of $0.21 per share.
However, the broker added that more optimistic outcomes are possible for the ASX mining stock.
In particular, it believes higher tungsten prices or larger production volumes could be a boon for the company's shares.
For instance, at current spot prices for tungsten and molybdenum, MST Financial's valuation for Tungsten Mining almost doubles to $1.28 per share.
