Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd (ASX: HVN) shares are marching higher today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) electronics and home furnishings retail stock closed yesterday trading for $7.02. During the Thursday lunch hour, shares are swapping hands for $7.07 apiece, up 0.7%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.6% at this same time.
Taking a step back, shares have strongly outperformed in 2025, gaining 50.4% compared to the 5.3% year-to-date gains delivered by the benchmark index.
Atop those capital gains, Harvey Norman shares also trade on a 3.8% fully franked trailing dividend yield.
So, on the heels of such a strong year, is the ASX 200 retail stock still a good buy today?
Below, we look at two opposing answers to that potentially lucrative question (courtesy of The Bull).
The sell-side analysis
Kicking off with the sell side, we turn to Family Financial Solutions' Jabin Hallihan.
"The Australian retailer operates a mix of company-owned stores and franchises," said Hallihan, who has a sell recommendation on Harvey Norman shares. "It also operates in New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia and Europe."
In a nod to the company's revenue growth, he noted, "Aggregates sales revenue, excluding Australian franchisees, rose 9.1% between July 1 and November 20 when compared to the prior corresponding period."
But Hallihan believes the Harvey Norman share price has risen too high.
"Our issue is valuation," he said.
Hallihan concluded:
While Harvey Norman benefits from a solid balance sheet and property assets, its shares on December 4 were trading above our fair value estimate of $5.50 after a 12% upgrade. The shares look expensive relative to fundamentals. We believe competition will limit margin expansion.
Which brings us to…
The buy case for Harvey Norman shares
Catapult Wealth's Blake Halligan has a more optimistic outlook on the ASX 200 retail stock.
"Improving consumer sentiment favours this retail giant leading into the usually strong Christmas trading period," said Halligan, who has a buy rating on Harvey Norman shares.
Part of his bullishness stems from the rapid rise of AI-enabled products, which could spur sales growth.
"Electronics and furniture are expected to perform well, particularly in artificial intelligence-related products amid strong interest in the latest iPhone," Halligan said.
He concluded:
HVN's franchising operations are enjoying robust pre-tax margins as costs remain well contained compared to last year. Aggregate sales for Australian franchisees increased 6.5% between July 1 and November 20, 2025, when compared to the prior corresponding period.
