By all measures, November was a horrid month for the major ASX bank stocks. Let's take a look at what happened to National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares last month.
November saw the NAB share price sink from $43.62 down to $40.10, a fall worth 8.07%. The ASX's largest bank, CBA, fared even worse. CBA shares dropped from $171.64 at the start of last month to $152.51 each by the end of last week. That's a plunge worth 11.15%.
Commonwealth Bank had the added distinction of hitting a three-month high of $178.57 during early November, too, meaning that its shares fell more than 15% from that peak by the end of the month.
Sure, it's not like it was a great November for the broader markets. The month just gone saw the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) take a hit. But it only dropped 3%, meaning that the two ASX banks significantly underperformed.
NAB does have something of a get-out-of-jail-free card, though. It traded ex-dividend for its final dividend of 2025 on 11 November, with investors set to receive a fully-franked 85 cents per share payout on 12 December next week. Given that this dividend is worth a yield of just over 2% at current prices, we can cut NAB a bit of slack there.
But even so, both banks have been major underperformers in recent weeks. So is the pain over for NAB and CBA shares? Or are these banks set for a rough December, and perhaps 2026, too?
Are there choppy waters ahead for NAB and CBA shares?
Well, as with all shares, making short-term predictions is folly. For years, CBA famously defied accusations from many expert investors of being overvalued. For all I, nor anyone else, knows, anything could happen with either CBA or NAB this month and in 2026.
But I won't be buying either share.
It's important to remember that neither NAB nor CBA are actually growing very fast right now. CBA reported a 4% rise in cash net profit after tax to $10.25 billion for its 2025 financial year back in August. Last month, NAB revealed flat cash earnings for its FY 2025, alongside a 2.9% slide in statutory net profits to $6.76 billion.
Yet both stocks trade at what could be considered a premium (CBA especially so). Commonwealth Bank shares are still on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25, while NAB is sitting at 18.
In contrast, JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM), the American bank regarded as one of the best in the world, is currently on an earnings multiple of 15.46.
What's worse, some experts are even predicting that NAB might be forced to cut its cherished dividend in the near future.
So I wouldn't be surprised to see NAB and CBA shares drift lower over the coming year. There's simply not enough growth in their futures to justify a rising share price. At least in my view. The market could disagree with me and send them higher, of course. But I'm happy to watch that, if it happens, from the sidelines.
