What happened with CSL shares in November?

November offered a pleasant reprieve for CSL shareholders. But why?

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Key points
  • CSL shares rose by 4.4% in November, outperforming the ASX 200's 3% loss, amid increasing analyst consensus that the stock is undervalued after a 35% decline over 12 months.
  • Positive momentum was fuelled by the company's Capital Markets Day, highlighting significant growth in its Seqirus influenza division, which now holds a 42% share of the global market.
  • CSL announced a significant US$1.5 billion investment in plasma-derived therapies manufacturing in the US, aiming to bypass potential import tariffs and reinforce its capacity to respond to global health emergencies.

After a decidedly rough year, CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares enjoyed a welcome month of outperformance in November.

On 31 October, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) biotech stock closed trading for $178.50. When the closing bell sounded on 28 November, shares were changing hands for $186.30 apiece.

This saw CSL shares up 4.4% for the month, handily outperforming the 3% loss posted by the ASX 200 over this same time.

a medical person in full protective gear with mask and gloves holds up a needle in one hand and a small bottle of vaccine in the other in a medical setting.

Image source: Getty Images

What's been lifting CSL shares?

With the ASX 200 healthcare stock down some 35% over 12 months, an increasing number of analysts believe the $88 billion company is now trading at a long-term bargain.

Consensus recommendations on CommSec reveal twelve analysts with a strong buy recommendation, two with a moderate buy, and four with hold recommendations. There are currently no sell recommendations on CSL shares.

Morgans is among the bulls here, with the broker recently reiterating its buy rating on the stock with a $249.51 price target. That's some 27% above current levels.

What else happened with the ASX 200 biotech stock in November?

Atop positive analyst coverage, CSL shares attracted investor interest following the company's Capital Markets Day on 5 November.

The company used the opportunity to highlight the tremendous 10-year growth achieved by its Seqirus influenza divisions. Revenue at Seqirus has increased from $751 million in FY 2016 to an estimated $2 billion in FY 2025. That represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.3%.

Management also noted that CSL Seqirus held a 42% share of the global influenza vaccine market in 2025.

And in the event of another global pandemic outbreak, CSL shares could rocket.

That's because the company said it could produce 500 million pandemic doses within the first four months of an outbreak. Should we see a global influenza outbreak, CSL estimates it would earn more than $3.5 billion in pandemic revenue. (Though let's hope it doesn't come to that again!)

November also saw the company announce that it will invest US$1.5 billion to manufacture plasma-derived therapies in the United States.

Among other benefits, this should exempt CSL from US pharmaceutical tariffs that Donald Trump is expected to impose on imports.

Commenting on the major US investment on the day, CSL managing director and CEO Paul McKenzie said:

The US is the world's leading source for plasma, the main component of plasma derived therapies. These important medicines are often the most effective or only therapies available for many rare or serious diseases.

Halfway through the second trading day of December, CSL shares are down 2% in the new month.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended CSL. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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