Mesoblast shares: Bull vs. bear

Two experts have presented their case for buying and selling the ASX biotech stock.

| More on:
Male investor holds a microscope to his eye to represent scrutiny of Wesfarmers share price

Image source: Getty Images

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Key points

  • Mesoblast anticipates significant sales growth for Ryoncil, driven by rising demand for pediatric SR-aGvHD therapy and expected revenues above US$30 million in 2Q FY26.
  • Bullish investor sentiment, highlighted by Nathan Lodge from Securities Vault, focuses on Ryoncil's revenue growth, strategic reimbursement gains, and Mesoblast's strong cash position and financing flexibility.
  • Conversely, bearish perspectives, exemplified by Andrew Wielandt from DP Wealth Advisor, underscore concerns over Mesoblast's stock volatility, historical capital raisings, and a notable level of short interest at 7%.

Mesoblast Ltd (ASX: MSB) shares are trading for $2.64, down 2.94% on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is in the green today, up 0.34% at the time of writing.

The allogeneic cellular medicines developer held its annual general meeting and provided quarterly sales guidance earlier this week.

Mesoblast expects significantly higher second-quarter sales revenue due to rising demand for its flagship medicine, Ryoncil.

Ryoncil treats steroid-refractory acute graft versus host disease (SR-aGvHD) in pediatric patients of two months and older.

It's the first FDA-approved mesenchymal stromal cell (MSC) therapy in the market.

The FDA approved Ryoncil in December 2024, and Mesoblast released it to commercial clinics in late March this year.

The FDA also gave Ryoncil orphan-drug exclusive approval.

That means the FDA will not approve any other MSC therapies for SR-aGvHD for at least seven years.

An orphan drug is a treatment for rare diseases, which are defined as affecting fewer than 200,000 people nationwide in the US.

For 2Q FY26, Mesoblast expects gross revenue of more than US$30 million from Ryoncil sales, up 37% from 1Q FY26.

This month, two experts have presented their case for buying and selling the ASX biotech stock.

Let's hear them out.

Bull case for Mesoblast shares

On The Bull this week, Nathan Lodge from Securities Vault revealed a buy rating on Mesoblast shares.

Lodge explains:

This regeneration therapy company offers growth momentum.

Mesoblast's lead product Ryoncil achieved meaningful revenue growth and now benefits from favourable reimbursement codes in the United States.

The company holds a strong cash position of about $US145 million and offers flexibility via a $US50 million convertible note facility to fund the next growth phase.

Company commercialisation is progressing and MSB has generated a pipeline of depth.

Bear case for ASX biotech share

On The Bull last week, Andrew Wielandt from DP Wealth Advisory put a sell rating on Mesoblast shares.

Wielandt said:

The company has been successful with its Ryoncil product since approved by the US Food and Drug Administration in late 2024.

I acknowledge research and development requires a lot of spending, but MSB has undertaken numerous capital raisings during its journey amid attracting short interest, where investors bet the share price will fall.

The share price can be volatile and has fallen from $3.35 on January 2 to trade at $2.305 on November 13.

I prefer more stable stocks.

ASIC's latest short position report shows that professional traders have short positions on 7% of the Mesoblast shares on issue today.

Motley Fool contributor Bronwyn Allen has positions in Mesoblast. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Healthcare Shares

Researchers and doctors with futuristic 3d hologram overlay for body anatomy or dna in hospital clinic.
Healthcare Shares

Why investors are watching this ASX healthcare stock

A fresh clinical update has been released.

Read more »

A Sonic Healthcare medical researcher wearing a white coat sits at her desk in a laboratory conducting a COVID-19 test
Healthcare Shares

This biotech is up more than 20% on new deal news

Revenue will flow under this global deal just announced.

Read more »

A male doctor and a woman in scrubs in the foreground smile.
Healthcare Shares

The next 3 years could be huge for this ASX healthcare stock. Here's why

Today's update has put this ASX healthcare stock back in the spotlight as investors reassess its long-term growth potential.

Read more »

A doctor sits with a patient and uses a pen to point to certain parts of her mammogram scan
Healthcare Shares

Top broker says this ASX small-cap healthcare stock could be set to double

This company is making significant clinical and commercial progress .

Read more »

A group of people in a corporate setting do a collective high five.
Healthcare Shares

3 quality ASX healthcare shares worth buying now

Brokers think the tide is turning for these battling medical heavyweights.

Read more »

Female scientist working in a laboratory.
Healthcare Shares

Early success in battling Crohn's Disease has sent this ASX biotech's shares soaring

The early-stage results have been described as outstanding.

Read more »

Medical workers examine an xray or scan in a hospital laboratory.
Healthcare Shares

Why are 4DMedical shares in a trading halt today?

The company is looking to raise fresh capital.

Read more »

Medical workers examine an xray or scan in a hospital laboratory.
Healthcare Shares

This ASX biotech's shares are up strongly on good news out of the US

The addressable market for this newly approved software is huge.

Read more »