The iShares S&P 500 ETF (ASX: IVV) share price (or unit price) has done incredibly well for investors over the long term. In the last five years, it has more than doubled, as the chart below shows. This is a good time to ask whether the US share can perform strongly again in 2026.
The S&P 500 represents 500 of the biggest, most profitable businesses listed in the US. The IVV exchange-traded fund (ETF) is invested in many of the world's most recognisable companies, such as Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Alphabet (Google), Meta Platforms (Facebook and Instagram), Tesla and Berkshire Hathaway.
Collectively, the huge technology companies have gone on a strong run, with the market excited by what they could achieve in the coming years with AI and other advancements.
While forecasts are not guaranteed to become true, let's take a look at what one investment bank thinks could happen with the S&P 500 in 2026, which would significantly influence the IVV ETF return.
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S&P 500 expert expectations
According to CNBC's reporting, Deutsche Bank predicts that the S&P 500 could reach 8,000 by the end of 2026, driven by another strong year fueled by artificial intelligence. That implies a possible rise of 18% from its current level. Remember, there's still more than a whole month of 2025 to go.
Jim Reid, the global head of macro and thematic research at Deutsche Bank Research, wrote earlier this week:
Rapid AI investment and adoption will continue to dominate market sentiment. Given the pace of technological advancement, it is difficult to believe this won't translate into meaningful productivity gains ahead.
However, the ultimate winners and losers will depend on a complex interplay of evolving factors, many of which may not become apparent until after 2026.
The 8,000 year-end S&P 500 target from our US equity strategist — our most optimistic analyst — is notable given his strong track record.
Is this a good time to buy the IVV ETF?
The index is clearly not cheap – at the end of October 2025, it had a price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 30.6x. But, it's significantly weighted to big tech businesses that are expected to continue growing earnings at a solid pace for years to come, despite their large size.
The US tariff volatility earlier this year presented a clear opportunity to buy shares, and I expect another bout of volatility at some point in the short to medium term. The share market regularly experiences declines from time to time.
If I had a strategy to regularly invest in the IVV ETF, I'd be happy to invest again today because of the ultra-low fees, high-quality holdings and strong track record. But, I believe there are plenty of ASX share opportunities that could perform stronger over the next five years at the current valuations.
