The S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) closed up a heady 1.26% on Thursday, with one ASX 300 stock racing ahead of those gains.
The fast-rising stock in question is agricultural chemical and seed technology company Nufarm Ltd (ASX: NUF).
Nufarm shares closed up 8.02% yesterday, trading for $2.56 apiece. This marked the second day of stellar gains for the ASX 300 stock, with Nufarm shares closing up 10.8% on Wednesday.
That big boost followed on Wednesday morning's release of Nufarm's full-year FY 2025 results. And it now sees Nufarm shares up 24.88% since 7 November's closing bell.
Despite those strong gains, the Nufarm share price remains down 27.68% year to date.
But looking to the year ahead, the analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) expect further gains from the agricultural company.
Here's why.
Macquarie lifts price target for ASX 300 stock
In FY 2025, Nufarm reported underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $302.5 million. While that was down 3% from FY 2024, investors were clearly pleased with the result following on a weak first-half (H1 FY 2025) report.
Nufarm's Crop Protection segment performed strongly, with underlying EBITDA up 18% year on year. Earnings from the company's Seed Technologies business, however, plunged 78%. That was driven by losses in Omega-3, impacted by a decline in fish oil prices.
Looking ahead, the ASX 300 stock expects to post earnings growth in FY 2026.
And the team at Macquarie believe that's achievable.
The broker noted:
Positive FY26 outlook for strong EBITDA growth (we forecast 25% EBITDA growth to $377m). This includes ongoing solid growth in Crop Protection driven by + mix and stronger vols. Agchem prices showing some improvement off a low base and same for fish oil prices.
Nufarm's management also said they expect earnings growth to see the company's leverage come down to 2.0 gearing level by end of FY 2026.
Commenting on the Nufarm's debt outlook, Macquarie said:
NUF sees path back to 2.0x gearing range in FY26 (2.7x in FY25) as passed peak capex (<$200m in FY26 or -c$50m vs pcp), less Omega 3 cash drag (not producing new crop in FY26 and selling out of existing inventory) and cost saves targeting $50m benefits. 1H26 net debt to increase seasonally back to 1H25 levels but with lower gearing (we fct 3.9x 1H26e vs 4.5x pcp) and then it's all about delivery in key 2H26 period.
With this in mind, Macquarie maintained its neutral rating on the ASX 300 stock. But the broker did raise its 12-month price target to $2.77, up from the prior $2.55 a share.
That's more than 8% above Thursday's closing price.
