BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are slipping today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant closed yesterday trading for $42.48. In morning trade on Tuesday, shares are swapping hands for $41.91 apiece, down 1.3%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.8% at this same time.
Taking a step back, BHP shares have gained 4% over the past 12 months. And that's not including the $1.71 a share in fully franked dividends the miner paid eligible stockholders over the full year.
At the current price, BHP stock trades on a fully franked trailing dividend yield of 4.1%.
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What's been happening with BHP shares?
The big news greeting ASX investors on Monday morning was the British High Court's ruling on the 2015 Fundao dam collapse in Brazil.
The court found that BHP was liable, with damages yet to be assessed, in the class action suit undertaken by more than 600,000 claimants. BHP shares closed down 0.6% on Monday.
As you may recall, the Fundao Dam was owned and operated by Samarco, a 50/50 joint venture between BHP Brazil and Vale. When the tailings dam collapsed in November 2015, catastrophic mudslides caused the deaths of 19 people and massive environmental damage.
BHP said it will appeal the judgement.
The miner noted that in October 2024, it reached a US$32 billion "comprehensive agreement with Brazil public authorities and public defenders for a full and final settlement of key claims in Brazil in relation to the dam failure".
What's Macquarie's take on the UK court decision?
In a new report, Samarco UK Class Action Ruling, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) maintained its neutral rating on BHP shares.
The broker noted that any future damages that may arise from the UK class action will be limited by the previous settlement BHP reached with Brazil's authorities.
Macquarie said:
No dual claims: In October 2024, BHP and Vale settled with a host of Brazilian public authorities (Brazilian Settlement) agreeing to fund ~US$32b over the next ~20y to fund remediation works, community programs and compensation. Under the agreement, claimants sign waivers barring additional claims.
Importantly, the UK Case found the waivers were valid, meaning past claimants are unable to claim under the UK Case and future claimants can only claim under one of the Brazilian Settlement or the UK Case.
Macquarie also noted that BHP is still facing a separate class action suit related to the tailings dam failure in the Netherlands.
According to the broker:
We adjust our impact of the Samarco settlement by US$1.3b, as we believe there is a higher risk of payments associated with the Dutch class action now where BHP shares liability with Vale. BHP cash flow expectations over FY26/27 remain at US$2.2b/US$0.5b.
Connecting the dots, Macquarie left its 12-month target price for BHP shares unchanged at $44.
That's 5% above current levels.
And it doesn't include those two upcoming dividends.
