It's been a roller coaster year for Catapult Sports Ltd (ASX: CAT).
At the time of writing, Catapult's share price is up 49% year to date and whilst that might sound great (it is), at one point this year, the sports analytics company had surged almost 110%, driven by strong momentum in recurring revenue and margin expansion.
Since mid-October, however, Catapult's share price has tumbled 28%, closing last Friday at $5.35.
The turning point came on 14 October, when Catapult announced the €40 million (US$46m) acquisition of Impect GmbH, a German soccer analytics leader known for its proprietary Packing™ platform that is widely recognised as a leader in scouting and tactical performance analysis.
The deal, designed to enhance Catapult's scouting and tactical insights platform, was paired with a fully underwritten A$130 million institutional placement at $6.68 per share, alongside a $20 million share purchase plan.
While the acquisition fits neatly into Catapult's long-term vision of becoming the global platform of choice for professional sports teams, the market clearly balked at the dilution from the capital raise and the hefty price tag, especially given lingering memories of prior expansion missteps.
Now, with the company set to release its 1H FY26 results tomorrow, investors are hoping to reset the clock and focus once again on Catapult's operational performance.
Image source: Getty Images
Strong preliminary numbers
Catapult has already provided a preliminary trading update (subject to review by the auditors) and so hopefully there shouldn't be too many surprises in the half-year numbers.
The preliminary update showed a solid performance across key metrics for the six months ended 30 September 2025:
- Annualised contract value (ACV): US$115.3– US$115.6 million, up 19% in constant currency
- Revenue: US$67.2million –US$67.5 million, up 15% –16%
- Management EBITDA: US$9–9.5 million, up 45–53%
- Free cash flow (ex-transaction costs): US$7.2–US$7.5 million, up from US$4.8 million last year
Even after absorbing costs from the Perch acquisition (which was concluded in June 2025) and a US$2 million payroll tax expense tied to share-based payments, profitability is expected to have improved meaningfully. The company noted that excluding transaction costs, free cash flow continues to expand, which is a sign that operational leverage is kicking in.
The next test for management is execution. Investors will want to see whether Catapult can integrate Impect successfully, maintain double-digit growth, and navigate the inevitable scrutiny around capital allocation.
Investors will be particularly focussed on management's outlook and guidance for the rest of FY 26. An upgrade to guidance would be most welcome.
Catapult CEO Will Lopes has consistently articulated a vision of scaling Catapult into a US$1 billion ACV platform, powered by cross-selling, Software as a Service (SaaS) economics, and expansion across pro sports. Tomorrow's results will show whether that trajectory remains intact or whether the stock's recent slump is a sign of fatigue after an extraordinary run.
Foolish bottom line
Catapult has already proven it can grow. Now it needs to show it can do so profitably and sustainably. With shares down sharply from their highs, tomorrow's update could determine whether investors view this as a buying opportunity or a warning sign.
