The Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) share price has been under pressure in recent times as investors digested how the investment bank performed following its FY26 half-year result.
Out of all of the businesses on the ASX, Macquarie is one of the most connected to the global economy.
It has four different divisions – banking and financial services (BFS), Macquarie Capital (investment banking), commodities and global markets (CGM) and Macquarie Asset Management (MAM).
Each of them provides something different for the company's earnings profile. Some of the divisions deliver consistent earnings (like asset management and banking), while others (such as CGM and investment banking) are cyclical.
After the company reported net profit after tax growth of 3% year-over-year to $1.65 billion, let's take a look at how the ASX bank share could perform from here for shareholders.
Forecasts for the Macquarie share price
According to CMC Markets, based on eight analyst ratings on the business, there are three buy ratings, four hold ratings and one sell rating.
Those analysts have an average price target of $219.85 on the ASX bank share. A price target is where analysts think the share price will be in 12 months from the time of the investment call. With that average target price, the analysts are suggesting the Macquarie share price could climb by approximately 10% over the next year.
One of the brokers with a neutral rating on the business is UBS. After seeing the result, the broker said:
Despite this earnings miss, Macquarie's full year guidance remains largely unchanged although compositionally there are movements…Macquarie is a quality compounder but finds itself in a soft patch. There is no panic yet from stakeholders, but we think its concerning times for Macquarie management and the Board with profitability (RoTE) now at multi-decade lows at ~10% and well below targeted levels. Share price underperformance further exacerbates this.
There are cyclical factors at play driving this but if this persists we think a strategic reshuffle around group structure and assets might be warranted, especially if a discount to their SOTP [sum of the parts] emerges.
Despite the neutral rating of the Macquarie share price, it has a price target of $225 on the ASX bank share, implying a possible rise of 12% in the next year, as well as the potential dividends.
UBS is forecasting Macquarie could generate net profit of $4.08 billion in FY26. Time will tell if this proves accurate and whether it's exciting enough to the market to push the Macquarie share price higher.
