Looking for some new additions to your portfolio?
If you are, it could be worth hearing what Ord Minnett is saying about a couple of popular ASX 200 shares.
One of them is rated as a buy and the other is a hold. Here's what the broker is recommending:
Ramelius Resources Ltd (ASX: RMS)
Ord Minnett notes that this ASX 200 gold share has released its five-year production outlook.
The company is expecting to double its production to 500,000 ounces by the end of the decade. And while its free cash flow will be a little lower than expected, it doesn't think this should put investors off. It said:
Ramelius Resources delivered a five-year outlook following its recent Spartan acquisition that forecasts gold production will more than double to circa 500,000 ounces a year by FY30, although free cashflow (FCF) will take a hit of circa 23% versus consensus estimates in FY26 before improving from there, with the outlook signalling upgrades of 25% for market expectations for FCF over FY27–30.
Some additional capital expenditure has been brought forward to FY26 to expand the Mt Magnet mill capacity to around 4.3 million tonnes of ore per annum (Mtpa) by FY28 – construction starts March quarter next year with completion scheduled for the September quarter in 2027, but the net impact over FY27–30 and beyond should be broadly positive versus previous consensus estimates.
Overall, the broker feels that recent share price weakness has been overdone and that it is trading at an attractive level compared to peers. It adds:
In our view, the steep pull-back in the Ramelius stock price since early October is not commensurate with the improving fundamentals of its business, and the stock now screens even more attractively versus its peers, e.g. a price to net asset value multiple of 0.8x versus the 1.2x pricing of its peers. We anticipate outperformance on continued production growth, delivery of increased FCF, and organic news flow which could drive further upside.
Morgans has a buy rating and $4.50 price target on the gold miner's shares. This implies potential upside of over 25% for investors over the next 12 months.
Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE)
Another ASX 200 share that Ord Minnett has been looking at is wine giant Treasury Wine Estates.
The broker has taken an axe to its valuation for the Penfolds owner following a review of its model as its new CEO takes over. It explains:
Ord Minnett has reviewed its Treasury Wine Estates model as new CEO Sam Fischer takes the reins, which has led to significant changes to our FY26 earnings forecast and a steep reduction in our target price to $6.50 from $8.00. Our changes are driven by the following factors: (i) excessive inventory in its Americas business, which will need to be cleared – we forecast revenue declines of $150 million at a margin of 55% as stock is depleted from its sales channels; (ii) weak demand for its Penfold products in China during the mid-autumn festival season; and (iii) removal of earn-out payments on its acquisition of Daou Vineyards in 2023.
Further on the Americas segment, the new boss will need to consider Treasury's future in what has always been a difficult US market, with the company lacking scale and the high-profile brands, Daou excluded, to compete in what is a highly fragmented market.
Morgans has a hold rating and $6.50 price target on its shares, suggesting that upside of 13% is possible from current levels.
