New Hope Corp Ltd (ASX: NHC) shares are following the broader market lower today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) coal stock closed yesterday trading for $4.36. During the Friday lunch hour, shares are changing hands for $4.27 apiece, down 2.1%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is down 1.4% at this same time as investors dial back hopes for interest rate cuts in Australia and in the United States.
Taking a step back, New Hope shares have slipped 8.0% over the past 12 months amid a significant decline in coal prices since last November.
However, the ASX 200 stock has continued to reward passive income investors with some market beating dividends.
If you've been holding onto the stock, you'll have received the fully franked 19 cent per share interim dividend on 9 April. New Hope paid the final fully franked dividend of 15 cents per share on 8 October.
This brings the full year dividend payout to 34 cents per share. And it sees New Hope stock trading on a fully franked 8.0% trailing dividend yield, essentially negating the capital losses of the past year.
Which brings us back to our headline question.
Should you buy New Hope shares today?
Fairmont Equities' Michael Gable recently ran his slide rule over the ASX 200 coal producer (courtesy of The Bull).
"We believe global demand for coal will remain elevated. As a commodity, prices are also heavily influenced by global supply," he said.
In potentially good news for the outlook for New Hope shares and future dividend payouts, Gable noted:
We can't see sufficient coal supplies emerging to meet demand in the absence of new investments due to environmental, social and governance concerns. When coal prices start rising again, existing producers, as opposed to explorers and developers, stand to benefit from the lack of new supply.
Gable concluded, "We expect the New Hope share price to move higher from here driven by increasing demand."
Despite those expectations, Gable isn't ready to pull the trigger on the ASX 200 coal miner, currently issuing a hold recommendation on the stock.
What's the latest from the ASX 200 coal stock?
New Hope shares closed up 5.1% after the coal miner reported its full year FY 2025 results on 16 September.
Highlights included saleable coal production of 10.7 million tonnes, up 18.1% year on year.
But with coal prices down from the prior year, the miner reported FY 2025 underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $765.8 million, down 11% from FY 2024.
On the bottom line, net profit after tax (NPAT) declined by 7.7% year-on-year to $439.4 million.
Longer-term, New Hope shares are up 269% over five years. And that's not including those twice-yearly dividend payments.
