Why this ASX 200 blue chip stock could rise 40%+

Let's see what one leading broker is saying about this blue chip.

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Key points

  • Aristocrat Leisure's robust FY 2025 results, featuring an 11% revenue increase and 12% rise in normalised NPATA, have not prevented its shares from being sold off, though analysts like Bell Potter remain optimistic.
  • Bell Potter highlights the company's impressive growth, noting its performance exceeded expectations with strong shipments in ANZ and North America, and expects continued growth through market share wins and strategic investments in FY 2026 and beyond.
  • With a buy rating and a new price target of $80.00, implying a 42% upside, the broker remains confident in Aristocrat Leisure’s potential, driven by top-tier R&D investment and significant M&A capacity.

Aristocrat Leisure Ltd (ASX: ALL) shares have come under pressure this week.

The ASX 200 blue chip stock was sold off on Wednesday despite the release of a strong FY 2025 result.

The gaming technology company posted an 11% increase in revenue to $6,297 million and a 12% jump in normalised NPATA to $1,550.7 million.

Has this created a buying opportunity for investors? Let's find out.

Broker reaction

Bell Potter was pleased with the ASX 200 stock's performance in FY 2025, highlighting that its result was ahead of expectations. It said:

ALL reported +7.6% YoY constant currency (CC) continuing revenue growth to $6,297m above BPe of $6,256m and VA consensus of $6,232m. […] Normalised NPATA of $1,551m was up +8.8% YoY (+1% beat vs. BPe). The gaming ops install base grew by 4.1k units to 75.2k, a miss on BPe and consensus expectations of 5.1k net adds. The EBITA beat was driven by exceptionally strong shipments into ANZ and the North American Class 3 and adjacencies markets.

It also notes that management is guiding to further growth in FY 2026. It adds:

ALL expects to deliver NPATA growth over FY26 on a CC basis, reflecting market share gains in Gaming and Product Madness and continued scaling in Interactive. ALL also guided to D&D investment growth in the mid-single digits and Product Madness UA spend in the 18-21% range.

Bell Potter is now forecasting NPATA growth of 10% to $1,706 million in FY 2026, followed by further growth of 10.7% to $1,889 million in FY 2027.

Time to buy

In response to the result, Bell Potter has retained its buy rating with a slightly improved price target of $80.00 (from $79.00).

Based on its current share price of $56.42, this implies potential upside of approximately 42% for investors over the next 12 months.

To put that into context, a $10,000 investment would turn into over $14,000 by this time next year if Bell Potter is on the money with its recommendation.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, the broker said:

We retain our Buy recommendation. We continue to expect ALL's leading R&D investment will drive market share gains. Top 2 game performance observed in both the core sales and premium gaming ops markets leaves us confident that ALL will grow the install base >4.0k per year and grow global shipments. Further, with leverage standing at 0.2x, ALL has substantial M&A firepower to boost growth inorganically.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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