Why numerous brokers rate this ASX gold share as a top buy

Here's why this stock could be a golden opportunity.

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Key points

  • Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU) is highly rated by analysts, with at least 10 analysts recommending it as a buy due to its strong quarterly performance, production outlook and favorable cost metrics.
  • UBS forecasts significant growth for Vault Minerals, including increasing gold production and strong free cash flow yields, alongside a strategic buyback and executive leadership changes.
  • UBS projects financial strengthening for the company, anticipating rising profits and cash reserves over the next few years with potential ups and downs depending on gold price movements, and suggests a large potential share price increase is on the cards. 

The ASX gold share Vault Minerals Ltd (ASX: VAU) is one of the most highly rated stocks by analysts right now.

The business is currently rated as a buy by at least 10 analysts, according to a collation of analyst ratings by Commsec.

Broker UBS describes Vault Minerals as an ASX gold share with projects in Australia and Canada.

Let's take a look at what makes the gold miner appealing to brokers.

The bull case for Vault Minerals shares

The company recently released its quarterly update for the three months to 30 September 2025, which showed "strong" gold sales of 90,000 ounces.

Additionally, the all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of A$2,613 per ounce was better than the market and UBS specifically expected. UBS had forecast the AISC would be between A$2,725 to A$2,750 per ounce. Inventory movements at Deflector and Mt Monger aided this number.

UBS forecasts that there will be an uplift to the ASX gold share's free cash flow yields to 13% in FY27 and 15% in FY28 based on the broker's price forecast. The broker has a long-term gold price forecast of US$3,250 per ounce.

The broker is expecting the business to grow production towards approximately 400,000 ounces by FY28.

UBS also noted the business is looking for a new CEO and highlighted the on-market share buyback the company is undertaking:

VAU has previously commenced an executive search process for a new CEO with Luke Tonkin announcing his intention to step down as MD/CEO within the next 12 months. Also, as part of its capital allocation framework, VAU announced that the Board has approved its maiden, on-market share buyback of up to 10% of its ordinary shares over the coming 12 months (UBSe ~A$300m). In the SepQ, VAU bought back ~A$9.3m of shares (14.4m shares) and is considering a 6.5:1 share consolidation in November post the AGM.

How much profit could the ASX gold share generate?

The broker is expecting strengthening financials from the business in the coming years.

In the 2026 financial year, UBS is expecting Vault Minerals to make $248 million of net profit. The balance sheet net cash figure could rise to $717 million.

In FY27, that net profit is projected to jump to $521 million, with net cash rising to $1.35 billion.

FY28 could see net profit increase slightly to $527 million and net cash could climb to $2.06 billion.

A reduction of the gold price could see earnings reduce in FY29 and FY30. FY29 could see the ASX gold share's net profit improve to $445 million and net cash reach $2.7 billion. FY30 is projected to see net profit decline to $342 million, with net cash rising to $3.3 billion.

Price target on the Vault Minerals share price

UBS currently has a buy rating on the business with a price target of 90 cents. That suggests a possible rise of 20% from where it is today.

Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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