QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE) shares are marching higher today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) insurance giant closed on Friday trading for $19.90. During the Monday lunch hour, shares are swapping hands for $20.21 apiece, up 1.6%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.5% at this same time.
Taking a step back, QBE shares have gained 9.4% over the past 12 months, outpacing the 6.6% one-year gains delivered by the benchmark index.
And that's not including the two partly franked dividend payouts the insurer delivered to eligible stockholders over the full year.
At the current share price, QBE trades on a partly franked trailing dividend yield of 4.7%.
Now, here's why the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) just upgraded the ASX 200 insurance stock to an outperform rating for the year ahead.
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QBE shares tipped to outperform
In a new research report released on Friday, Macquarie estimated that insurance premium rates in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q 2025) are holding at similar levels to 2Q 2025 in Europe and North America, with Australia's trajectory reported to be the weakest globally.
Nonetheless, Macquarie said the QBE shares are now trading at a historic premium relative to their international competitors.
The broker noted, "QBE is trading at a -3.6% price to earnings (P/E) discount to international peers (vs +5.5% 3- year average premium)."
QBE is scheduled to release its third-quarter (3Q 2025) results on 26 November.
And Macquarie said investors shouldn't expect management to offer full-year FY 2026 guidance at the time.
"QBE has not historically provided guidance for the subsequent year (i.e., FY26) at the 3Q trading update. We do not expect any commentary on capital returns prior to Feb '26," the broker said.
In gauging the potential for QBE shares in the year ahead, Macquarie reviewed the 3Q 2025 result from 31 global offshore insurers
The broker said that key findings included:
- Pricing: +5% to +7% in the US, relatively flat in Europe; with Australia seeing the biggest weakness;
- Catastrophes: Insurers and Reinsurers all flagged low catastrophes so far this calendar year. Industry currently estimates Oct '25 Caribbean losses at ~US$2.4b; and
- Crop: Harvest pricing for corn and soybeans settled 10% and 2% lower, with steady yield expectations. Peers anticipate an average crop year.
Noting that "current valuations are at a discount to global peers as we exit the North American catastrophe season," Macquarie upgraded the ASX 200 insurer from a neutral rating to outperform.
The broker also raised its 12-month price target on QBE shares to $23.50 (from the prior $23.30).
That represents a potential upside of 16.3% from current levels. And it doesn't include those upcoming dividends.
