Flight Centre shares slump 30% this year: Buying opportunity or time to sell up?

What's next for the travel stock?

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Key points

  • Flight Centre shares have dropped 29.57% year-to-date, currently trading at $11.74 per share, amidst discussions of selling its stake in Pedal Group.
  • Despite a 10% decline in UPBT, Flight Centre reported a 3% increase in record total transaction value and revenue for FY25.
  • Analysts, including Macquarie and Morgans, suggest the recent price drop is a buying opportunity, predicting significant potential upside in share value.

The Flight Centre Travel Group Ltd (ASX: FLT) share price is trading in the red again on Thursday afternoon. At the time of writing, the travel management company's shares are down 1.01% at $11.74 a piece.

For the year-to-date the shares have dropped 29.57%.

What's happened? Is the slump a signal for investors to sell up? Or does it present a window of opportunity ahead of the next growth stage?

What happened to Flight Centre shares this year?

Last week the company said it was considering selling its stake in bicycle retailer Pedal Group. It said in a statement to the ASX that the two majority owners of the business had engaged consultants Grant Samuel to "review future ownership options for the business".

Flight Centre came on board as a shareholder in 2008 and now owns approximately 47% of the company. The family of Flight Centre managing director, Graham Turner, owns an additional 35%. 

In late-August, the company posted a 10% year-on-year decline in underlying profit before tax (UPBT) and a 3% decline in its statutory profit before tax.

It wasn't all negative, though. Flight Centre achieved a 3% increase in its record total transaction value (TTV) and its FY25 revenue was also up 3%.

Going forward, Flight Centre management said it expects some ongoing turbulence, but thinks the market will stabilise through FY26.

The stock was also listed as the 7th most shorted stock on the ASX this week. Flight Centre has short interest of 10.5%, which is down slightly since last week. This seems to be off the back of concerns around structural headwinds.

Should investors sell up or buy in the dip?

If analyst sentiment is anything to go buy, this share price plunge should be considered as a great buying opportunity for investors.

Macquarie has a bullish outlook on Flight Centre shares. It has an outperform rating and $16.55 target price on the shares. At the time of writing this represents a huge potential 40.9% increase for opportunistic investors over the next 12 months.

The broker said it sees some green shoots for the business in FY 26 and describes the past 12 months as "a year shaped by volatility & grey swan events". 

Morgans expects Flight Centre's earnings growth to accelerate in 2H26 when macroeconomic conditions and internal business initiatives improve. The broker has a buy rating and $15.65 target price on the shares, which implies a potential 33.3% upside at the time of writing.

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Flight Centre Travel Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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