Goodman shares drop following Q1 update

Let's see how this blue chip has started the new financial year.

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Key points

  • Goodman Group's shares have gained attention following a strong first quarter with a notable 4.2% annual increase in net property income, supported by a high occupancy rate of 96.1%.
  • The company is driving growth with substantial developments focused on data centres and large-scale logistics projects, buoyed by customer investments in AI and automation technology.
  • With a strategic focus on expanding digital infrastructure and infill locations, Goodman is well-positioned to capitalise on emerging opportunities, maintaining its guidance for 9% earnings growth in FY26.

Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) shares are under pressure on Wednesday morning.

At the time of writing, the industrial property giant's shares are down 2% to $31.32.

Why are Goodman shares falling?

Investors have been selling the company's shares today following the release of its first quarter update.

According to the release, Goodman delivered a 4.2% increase in like for like annual net property income (NPI) growth on properties in its partnerships.

Commenting on the quarter, Goodman's CEO, Greg Goodman, said:

Logistics customers are focused on significant capital investment in AI and robotic technology, to drive automation and productivity gains. This is particularly evident across larger customers and is likely to continue to see consolidation across the sector into larger, more advanced facilities in prime locations. Combined with minimal vacancy and limited new supply in our markets, this should support future growth and activity.

Goodman's growth was supported by a 96.1% occupancy rate from a total portfolio valued at $85.9 billion.

But if you thought the company was settling for this, think again. Its development work in progress (WIP) stood at $12.4 billion at the end of September and is projected to reach $17.5 billion by the end of June.

Over two-thirds of Goodman's WIP is focused on data centres. And approximately 40% is either pre-sold or being built for third parties or its partnerships.

And while industrial development starts remain subdued, management notes that opportunities are emerging with larger logistics customers. This is due to them focusing on improving productivity through significant strategic capital investment into supply chain technology, which remains focused on automation through AI and robotics solutions, and consolidation into higher quality locations

Management believes that Goodman is well positioned to benefit from this given its large-scale infill location sites and track record in developing complex multi-purpose projects.

It also believes it is well placed to support the broad range of growing digital infrastructure needs of its customers. Goodman's global power bank maintained at 5.0 GW across 13 major global cities. This comprises 3.4 GW of secured power, 1.6 GW of power in advanced stages of procurement, and 0.8 GW of data centres and powered sites delivered over the past 15 years.

Outlook

Goodman has reaffirmed its guidance for FY 2026. It is forecasting operating earnings per share growth of 9%. Though, these earnings are expected to be weighted to the second half of the year.

Speaking about its outlook, Greg Goodman said:

We expect current enquiry and customer activity to translate into increased opportunities in industrial development in FY27. We are acquiring and pursuing large scale sites which will accommodate this infrastructure build out.

We continue to target 9% growth in OEPS for FY26. We expect development activity will be weighted to 2H FY26 which may result in a similar effect on the timing of earnings.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has positions in Goodman Group. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Goodman Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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