S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) copper stock Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC) is slipping today.
Capstone Copper shares closed yesterday trading for $13.77. During the Tuesday lunch hour, shares are swapping hands for $13.42 apiece, down 2.5%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.6% at this same time.
Taking a step back, Capstone Copper shares have raced ahead of the benchmark in 2025, gaining 32.5% year to date compared to the 7.8% gains posted by the benchmark index over this same period.
And the ASX 200 copper stock has been on a real tear since plumbing one-year lows on 9 April. Despite today's dip, shares remain up a blistering 118% since market close on 9 April.
Part of that surge is due to Capstone's own mining and operational successes.
The miner is also enjoying heady tailwinds from surging global copper prices. Copper is currently fetching US$10,855 per tonne. That sees the price of the red metal up 23.8% year to date, according to data from Bloomberg.
And looking ahead, the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) expect another year of outperformance from Capstone Copper shares.
Here's why.
ASX 200 copper stock posts record quarterly earnings
Capstone Copper shares closed up 2.9% on Friday following the release of the company's September quarter results.
Among the highlights, the miner reported a 6% lift in its average realised copper price to US$4.49 per pound.
Over the three months, the ASX 200 copper stock produced 55,280 tonnes of the red metal, up 16.5% year on year.
And costs came down, with Q3 2025 C1 cash costs of $2.42 per pound, down 15% from Q3 2024.
And the September quarter saw Capstone Copper achieve record adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of US$249.2 million, up 106% year on year. The miner attributed the record earnings to increased sulphide copper production, lower C1 cash costs, and higher copper prices.
Management also reconfirmed full-year 2025 production and costs guidance.
What did Macquarie make of Capstone Copper's results?
Commenting on the ASX 200 copper stock's September quarter results, Macquarie said there were not many negatives.
According to the broker:
There was lots to like from the 3Q results with a 2% beat (versus Visible Alpha) on production, 6% beat on sales, and 6% beat on cash costs. Higher sales and stronger realised prices (US$4.49/lb, 2% higher than VA of US$4.42/lb) contributed to revenue beat of 11% at US$598.4m, which combined with lower costs flowed through to a 21% beat in Ebitda at US$249.2m.
Macquarie maintained its outperform rating on Capstone Copper, noting, "3Q was particularly pleasing considering the beat on most metrics and reiteration of CY25 production guidance."
The broker has a 12-month price target of $16.50 per share on the ASX 200 copper stock.
That represents a potential 23% upside from current levels.
