BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) is a firm favourite among income-focused investors, and it is not hard to see why.
The mining giant has long been known for its consistent and generous dividend payouts, fuelled by strong profits from its world-class operations across iron ore, copper, and coal.
Even as commodity markets ebb and flow, BHP's financial strength and disciplined capital management have made it a reliable choice for those seeking steady income from their ASX share portfolio.
For example, in FY 2025, BHP rewarded shareholders with a fully franked dividend of US$1.10 per share, supported by underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) of US$25,978 million.
But what's next for the Big Australian's dividends? Let's look at what analysts at Macquarie are expecting for the years ahead and what that could mean for income investors.
Image source: Getty Images
FY 2026: A small dip on the horizon
Macquarie is forecasting a fully franked dividend of US$1.05 per share in FY 2026, slightly below this year's payout.
Based on current exchange rates and the BHP share price of $44.01, this equates to a dividend yield of approximately 3.7%.
This is being driven by a small decline in underlying EBITDA to US$24,948 million according to Macquarie, reflecting modestly softer commodity prices.
FY 2027: Earnings moderate further
In FY 2027, Macquarie expects a further easing in BHP's dividend to US$1.01 per share, with EBITDA falling to US$22,370 million.
Converted to Australian dollars, this would represent a yield of roughly 3.5%, still fully franked. While that's a touch below recent highs, it remains attractive compared to many other ASX blue chips.
FY 2028: The recovery
After a couple of softer years, BHP's dividends are expected to recover in FY 2028, with Macquarie forecasting a US$1.03 per share payout.
This slight uptick aligns with a forecast rebound in underlying EBITDA to US$22,618 million. Based on current exchange rates, that translates to an implied dividend yield of around 3.6%.
FY 2029: A nice jump
In FY 2029, Macquarie expects a meaningful increase in both earnings and dividends.
The broker sees BHP's underlying EBITDA lifting to US$24,941 million, underpinning a fully franked dividend forecast of US$1.18 per share. This will be the highest payout since FY 2025.
At current prices, that would deliver investors a yield of about 4.1%, not including the added benefit of franking credits.
Should you invest?
At present, the broker thinks investors should wait for a better entry point before making an investment.
It has put a neutral rating and $43.00 price target on its shares, which is a touch below current levels.
