While it didn't make the news in Australia, the collapse of tween fashion accessories retailer Claire's was big news internationally, given the company operates about 2750 stores across 17 countries.
The US-based fashion accessories chain filed for bankruptcy for the second time in August, with private company Ames Watson coming to the rescue in the US, at least, by buying up about 1,000 stores across North America in a deal worth US$140 million, according to a report on CNBC.
But despite that deal, the team at Macquarie believe its competitor's pain could be Lovisa Holdings Ltd (ASX: LOV)'s gain, with the $4.17 billion Australian retailer set to benefit from the fallout of the collapse.
Market share opportunity
In a research note sent to clients this week, Macquarie analysts suggest that Claire's bankruptcy, given they are Lovisa's largest competitor in the US and UK markets, creates a US market revenue opportunity of about $99 million.
This is because, the Macquarie team says, there are 111 stores "that are in either the same or adjacent ZIP code to a Lovisa store, but are set to be closed''.
They go on to say:
Similarly, we see a $50m per annum opportunity for the UK, from 59 stores that are slated for closure and are proximal to Lovisa's existing footprint. Whilst clearance sales in these stores (e.g. 90% discounts in the US) may have a minor impact on Lovisa's share in the first half of 2026, this is outweighed by the longer-term share opportunity.
There is a risk that stores acquired by private equity and revamped could pose higher competition risks in the future, the analysts say, "but we see an opportunity in FY26 for Lovisa to take share as these stores undergo transformation''.
Chance to buy up stores
The Macquarie team also suggest that Lovisa itself could buy some of Claire's stores, which are not being bought by private equity, and there were 57 stores in the UK, "that could provide geographic diversification benefits''.
Macquarie currently has a neutral rating on Lovisa shares, but their price target of $40.90 on the stock, compared with $37.73 at the close of trade on Tuesday, implies there is further upside to be had.
Factoring in dividends, Macquarie is forecasting a 12-month total shareholder return of 10.2%.
Overall, they said regarding Lovisa shares:
We see risk/reward symmetry as equally weighted currently.
Lovisa will hold its annual general meeting on 21 November.
