Up 70% since April, are IGO shares still a good buy now?

A leading expert delivers his verdict on the outlook for ASX 200 lithium miner IGO.

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Key points

  •  IGO shares are experiencing a decline today, falling 6.2%, but remain up 70.2% since 9 April.
  • Bell Potter Securities' Christopher Watt cites long-term growth potential in battery metals overshadowed by short-term lithium price volatility and joint venture challenges.
  • IGO reported a sharp revenue decline and a substantial net loss for FY 2025. 

IGO Ltd (ASX: IGO) shares are getting hammered today.

Shares in the diversified S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining stock – which is focused on lithium and nickel production – closed yesterday trading for $5.67. In afternoon trade on Tuesday, shares are changing hands for $5.32 apiece, down 6.2%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.4% at this same time.

Taking a step back, IGO shares are now just about flat over the past full year. But following a stellar rally that kicked off in April, the ASX 200 mining stock is up 70.2% from the 9 April close.

The million-dollar question now is, can the strong gains posted over the past six months continue into 2026?

IGO shares: Buy, hold, or sell?

Bell Potter Securities' Christopher Watt offered his insights on the ASX 200 miner last Friday (courtesy of The Bull).

"The company owns lithium and nickel assets," Watt said.

While he sounded an optimistic note on the miner's longer-term growth potential, he has a hold recommendation on IGO shares for now.

According to Watt:

Although its battery metals exposure offers long term relevance, the short term is clouded by lithium price volatility and underperformance from the Kwinana and Greenbushes joint ventures.

Watt concluded, "Guidance moving forward is cautious, and full integration of recent acquisitions is pending. While the theme appeals, the earnings outlook needs more clarity to warrant a re-rating."

What's the latest from the ASX 200 mining stock?

IGO shares were in sharp focus on 28 August after the company released its full-year FY 2025 results.

Among the core financial metrics, the miner reported a 37% year-on-year decline in revenue to $528 million.

And on the bottom line, IGO reported a net loss after tax of $955 million, down from a net profit after tax of $3 million in FY 2024. The results were materially impacted by IGO's share of the $642 million net loss in its TLEA joint venture, which holds a controlling interest in the Greenbushes lithium mine.

With the company swinging to a loss, management opted not to pay any dividends in FY 2025, marking the first dividend free year in more than 10 years.

Commenting on the results on the day, IGO's CEO Ivan Vella said:

IGO's FY25 financial results are disappointing. Both challenging market conditions and asset impairments, as a result of a disciplined portfolio review, impacted our headline results. Some of these were difficult decisions, however our underlying business remains solid and we have a clear strategy for value and growth we are delivering on.

IGO shares closed down 4.7% on the day of the results release.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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