Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC) has had a strong last 6 months, rising roughly 45%. Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS) shares have performed even better, lifting more than 125% in that same period.
After such a rise, some holders may be considering selling.
Meanwhile, prospective buyers may be worried they've missed the boat.
Yesterday, I covered the latest guidance from Macquarie on both Whitehaven Coal and Pilbara Minerals shares.
The team at Bell Potter has also released fresh guidance on these mining stocks.
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Whitehaven Coal Ltd (ASX: WHC)
In Bell Potter's report following the company's Q1 FY26 results, it said adverse weather impacted Whitehaven Coal production across NSW and QLD.
The broker said, despite the depressed coal price environment, Whitehaven continues to achieve positive EBITDA (FY26 BP est. $1b) across its Queensland and New South Wales operations and is on target to achieve group annualised cost reductions of $60 to $80m by the end of FY26.
EPS changes in this report are: -21% in FY26; +1% in FY27; and FY28 is unchanged.
Bell Potter said Whitehaven's focus on cost-out and productivity enhancements has positioned the company to withstand sustained periods of coal price weakness.
The team at Bell Potter has a positive long-term metallurgical coal outlook, driven by constrained supply and increased demand from steel producers reliant on seaborne metallurgical coal (i.e., India).
Whitehaven is well-positioned to capitalise on improved coal markets through its portfolio of organic growth projects.
Based on this guidance, Bell Potter has a hold recommendation on Whitehaven Coal shares and a target price of $7.
This indicates Whithaven shares are currently trading close to fair value.
Pilbara Minerals Ltd (ASX: PLS)
Bell Potter believes Pilbara shares are a sell following recent strong share price appreciation.
The broker holds a positive long-term lithium market outlook and acknowledges Pilbara's market-leading position and growth optionality.
However, it believes Pilbara's current market valuation implies an SC6 index price of over US$1,400/t into perpetuity, compared with the current price of around US$850/t.
Bell Potter now has a sell recommendation on Pilbara Minerals shares and a price target of $2.65.
Pilbara Minerals shares closed yesterday at $3.28 each.
This indicates a downside of more than 19%.
