The Vault Minerals (ASX: VAU) share price ended the week on another high. At the close of the ASX on Friday afternoon, the ASX mining stock's shares were 0.7% higher at $0.715 a piece.
The gold miner has enjoyed a strong price surge over the past couple of months, climbing 70.7% over the past 9 weeks. The shares are now 81.01% higher than this time last year as the business continues to ride the wave of gold sector tailwinds and strong financial results.
And it doesn't look like the upswing is stopping anytime soon either. In a recent note to investors, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) said it expects the shares to continue climbing over the next 12 months.
Here's what the broker had to say.
Vault Minerals shares expected to storm even higher
Macquarie has confirmed its outperform rating and $1.00 12-month target price. At the close of the ASX on Friday that represents a potential upside of 39.9% for investors.
"Valuation: We make no change to our A$1.00/sh target price derived from a 50:50 blend of 1.3x NAV and 9x OCF (unchanged)," the broker said in its investor note.
Outperform. VAU pre-reported sales/cash & bullion. AISC (now reported) was a beat vs. VA but in line with MQe. FY26 guidance is unchanged with the hedgebook continuing to unwind. KoTH plant expansion (key to our medium-term outlook) tracking to plan.
What else was said about the ASX mining stock?
Vault Minerals pre-reported Q1 sales and bullion in early-October. Production of ~92koz closely aligned to sales of ~91koz (sold at a realised price of A$4,446/oz).
The company's Group all-in sustaining costs (AISC), a key performance metric in the mining sector, was in line with Macquarie's estimates but 4% below market expectations at A$2,613/oz.
"At the asset level, higher-than-expected costs at KoTH (+14% vs. MQe) were offset by cost beats at both Mt Monger (-21%) and Deflector (-5%)," the broker said in its note.
VAU held A$703m of cash & bullion at the end of 1QFY26, and holds no bank debt.
Macquarie also noted that Vault Minerals' growth capex was higher in Q1. The overall capex of $88 million, excluding growth exploration, was $19 million higher than Macquarie and market estimates of $70 million.
"This was largely due to elevated stripping costs (treated as capex) at KoTH, with VAU also investing in a mining fleet at Deflector (transitioning to an owner-operater model," Macquarie said.
VAU also notes that the KoTH stage 1/2 plant upgrades continue to progress on time/ budget, with throughput to increase 50% to 7.5-8Mtpa by 2QFY27.
Meanwhile, the miner is on track with its FY26 production guidance of 332-360koz (346koz mid-point versus Macquarie estimates of 350koz) at an AISC of A$2,650-2,850/oz (A$2,750/oz mid-point vs. Macquarie estimates A$2,851/oz).
