Capstone Copper Corp (ASX: CSC) shares are climbing higher in lunchtime trade on Thursday. At the time of writing, the ASX mining stock's share price is 0.08% higher at $12.26 each.
It's welcome news for the miner which has seen its share price fall 16.5% from an all-time peak two weeks ago. For the year, its shares are 12.41% higher.
And now, in a new note to investors, analysts at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) have said they expect the share price to jump even higher.
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Strong upside ahead for the ASX mining stock
In its note, the broker confirmed its outperform rating on the shares. It has also raised its 12-month target price to $17.10, up from $15 last week.
The update follows Macquarie's latest review of Australian copper miners ahead of their quarterly reporting dates. Capstone Copper is due to release its quarterly update on 31 October.
In 3Q of the 2025 calendar year, Macquarie forecasts copper production of 53.8kt, which is 1% below market expectations, at a C1 cash cost of US$2.47/lb, 2% below market expectations.
"Two large block trades were conducted in relatively quick succession in early October whereby long-term private equity shareholders Hadrian Capital Partners sold 50m shares at A$13.75/sh for A$688m and Orion Resource Partners sold 47.5m shares at C$12.15/sh for C$577m (~A$635m). Combined, the block trades represent ~12.8% of the register transferring from private equity funds to institutional ownership and explains CSC's recent share price weakness," the broker said.
"We note that CSC's last reported CDI statement in September outlined there was 26.6% ownership of the stock in Australia but, following the block trade, we think it's possible this has increased to +30%."
The broker also updated expectations for the year
For the full calendar year, Macquarie expects the ASX mining stock's copper production to be around 228.1kt, which is 4% below the midpoint of guidance.
"We expect CSC will reiterate CY25 production guidance of 220-255kt with the 3QCY25, however it is possible that the company will guide towards the lower end of production guidance," it said in its note.
"We expect CSC will reiterate CY25 C1 cash cost guidance of US$2.20-2.50/lb with the 3QCY25, however it is possible that the company will guide towards the upper end of cost guidance."
Macquarie also forecasts total capex of US$586 million (in line with guidance) for the 2025 calendar year, while market forecasts are US$599 million (which is 2% above guidance).
