It's undoubtedly been a great year to be a gold investor, whether that be in the precious metal itself or the companies mining it.
But if you're looking for real upside, the key is to identify an up-and-coming developer who has a project that is moving successfully from the exploration phase, through project development and into production.
Such companies can be targets for acquisition – an area that's certainly been running hot in the gold sector – or can hopefully bring their projects into production in time to capitalise on the surging price of gold.
Mine Life director Gavin Wendt thinks Astral Resources Ltd (ASX: AAR) is one such company, and he's not the only market watcher to think so.
Image source: Getty Images
What's so good about this gold developer?
So why is he keen on this company in particular? Firstly, there's management.
In a report released on the company this week, Mr Wendt points out that Astral is headed up by managing director Mark Ducler, who led the former company Egan Street Resources, which was taken over back in 2019.
As Mr Wendt writes:
Astral aims to replicate the same acquisition model, with its Mandilla Project likely of strong interest to potential suitors, as it's one of the largest undeveloped free-milling, open-pit gold projects within the Kalgoorlie region.
And there's also an interesting deal Astral inked just this week, under which it has teamed up with a private company, Mineral Mining Services (MMS), to develop the Think Big gold deposit, which is part of its broader Feysville project in Western Australia.
Under that deal, MMS will fund the development of Think Big, with the two companies sharing the profits once it comes into production.
As Astral said this week:
The standalone development of the Think Big project provides an opportunity to deliver early gold production and cash flow from Astral's asset portfolio, providing funding to support the development of the company's flagship Mandilla Gold Project, potentially reducing the debt and equity funding requirement and minimising shareholder dilution.
Strong cash flow to come
Astral's prefeasibility study, released earlier this year, estimated the pre-production capital at Mandilla to be $227 million, with the mine to generate more than $2.8 billion in free cash flow over its 19-year mine life, with a rapid payback period of less than one year.
These numbers were also modelled at the conservative gold price of $4250 per ounce of gold, compared with the current price in Australian dollars of $6376.44.
Mr Wendt says partnering with MMS significantly derisks the development and funding process for Think Big, while freeing up Astral to focus on Mandilla.
He goes on to say:
Astral holds strong cash reserves, meaning it is well funded to maintain accelerated exploration and evaluation activities at both its Mandilla and Feysville Gold Projects, at a time of record Australian dollar gold prices and growing consolidation within the sector.
So what of the share price? The company has more than doubled in value from as low as 12 cents to 25 cents currently over the past year.
But Mr Wendt says Euroz Hartleys has a buy recommendation on the stock and a price target of 34 cents, while Canaccord Genuity has a buy recommendation and a price target of 64 cents.
Should it reach those levels, that would be a 156% gain from where the stock closed on Tuesday afternoon.
