There' s no two ways about it, Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) shares have had a year to forget.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) global wine company closed down 1.6% on Tuesday, trading for $6.18 apiece.
That sees Treasury Wine shares down a painful 46.8% over 12 months. And those losses will only be modestly ameliorated by the 40 cents per share in partly franked dividends the ASX 200 stock paid eligible shareholders over the full year. At Tuesday's closing price, Treasury Wine stock trades on a partly franked trailing dividend yield of 6.5%.
Looking to the year ahead, however, Family Financial Solutions' Jabin Hallihan believes the wine company is well-placed to rebound from levels that remain near 10-year lows (courtesy of The Bull).
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Should you buy Treasury Wine shares today?
"This global wine giant continues to attract institutional support, with analysts reiterating buy ratings," said Hallihan, citing the first reason to buy this beaten down ASX 200 stock.
Commenting on the latest headwinds to batter the company, Hallihan said:
The shares recently plunged after the company withdrew group earnings before interest and tax growth guidance in fiscal year 2026 due to an uncertain outlook in relation to Penfolds and Treasury Americas. The company also paused its on-market share buy-back until there's more clarity around trading conditions and expectations.
Indeed, Treasury Wine shares closed down 15.0% on 13 October after the company announced it was pulling its FY 2026 earnings guidance due to uncertain market conditions.
The company released its FY 2025 results on 13 August.
At the time management provided FY 2026 guidance for low-to-middle-double digit growth in earnings before interest and tax and significant items (EBITS) for its Penfolds segment. Management also forecast "modest" EBITS growth for its Treasury Americas business.
On 13 August, management also announced an on-market share buyback of up to $200 million.
Investors were clearly disappointed by the pause of that buyback, alongside the removal of full year guidance.
But Hallihan is optimistic about the outlook for Treasury Wine shares moving forward.
"In our view, the stock offers long term growth potential, driven by premium brand positioning and global distribution," he said, indicating the second reason the stock is a buy.
As for the third reason you may want to buy shares in the ASX 200 wine company Hallihan noted that following the past year's sell down, Treasury Wine shares look to be trading at a long-term bargain.
"At current levels, we believe the stock offers an attractive entry point for long-term accumulation," he said.
