Bell Potter just lowered its view on these ASX energy shares

What's behind the change in target price?

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Key points

  • Beach Energy’s FY26 first-quarter revenue rose 18% to $537 million. 
  • Bell Potter noted results exceeded expectations and maintained FY26 guidance, but highlighted that the company is entering a production replacement phase before expected growth in FY27.
  • The broker cut its target price from $1.25 to $1.10.

Beach Energy Ltd (ASX: BPT) just released FY26 first-quarter earnings data

The company produces oil and natural gas from numerous joint venture projects across Australia and New Zealand.

It posted an 18% lift in sales revenue to $537 million for the September quarter. This was thanks to increased production and higher realised gas prices.

The Motley Fool's Laura Stewart reported yesterday that the company saw its production rise 8% quarter on quarter to 5 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe), and sales volumes increased 15% to 6.8 MMboe. 

Investors reacted positively to the results, as the share price pushed 4% higher on Monday.

This ASX energy share still remains down more than 20% year to date.

Bell Potter also released fresh analysis on the company following the first-quarter data. 

Here's what the broker had to say.

Strong production amid flood recovery

The broker said the company's production benefited from strong contributions from the Cooper Basin JV and Victorian Otways assets (together two-thirds of Group production), with a recovery from flooding and strong customer nominations.

Two Waitsia LNG cargos lifted during the quarter ahead of processing plant startup (supplied by around 20% BPT gas, 80% from third-party purchases and swaps).

This took sales and revenues materially higher than Bell Potter's estimates.

The broker said its FY26 guidance is maintained. 

Decreased share price target for Beach Energy shares

This ASX energy share price closed yesterday after a 4% rise, trading at $1.14.

However, Bell Potter has decreased its target price on Beach Energy shares following its Q1 report. 

The broker said the company is now in a production replacement cycle with respect to exploration and appraisal.

Production growth should return in FY27 and capex ease, enabling positive free cash flow to support balance sheet deleveraging and ongoing dividends. 

We are positive on BPT's exposure to Australian east coast gas markets (around half of sales volumes) and cautious with respect to global oil markets.

The current Bell Potter target price is $1.10. It was previously $1.25.

Based on this target price and yesterday's closing price of $1.14, the broker now believes the share price is 3.5% overvalued. 

Motley Fool contributor Aaron Bell has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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