Down 6.3% today. Are AMP shares a buy, hold, or sell?

Here's what Macquarie thinks of the stock.

Key points
  • The AMP share price dropped 6.28% to $1.79, with Macquarie maintaining a neutral rating but slightly raising the price target to $1.80 due to improved net flows in the Platforms division.
  • Macquarie sees a potential 0.6% upside, but highlights the need for clarity on AMP's bank strategy and technology platform advancements to become more bullish.
  • Macquarie highlighted a need for more information on AMP's strategic plans and noted the MyNorth Lifetime product on the platform increased to $579 million, suggesting positive momentum in selected areas.

The AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) share price has plunged 6.28% to $1.79 per share. Over the year, the share price is 12.23% lower.

Today's share price drop follows AMP's third-quarter update, released yesterday morning. AMP announced that its total assets under management (AUM) increased 3.6% quarter-on-quarter, and its Platforms AUM jumped 4.5% to $86.9 billion. AMP also reported that its platform's net cash flows surged 61.6% over the period to $1.2 billion.

It wasn't all positive news, though. Although AMP's Superannuation & Investments business' AUM increased 3.4%, it also reported net cash outflows of $241 million.

AMP's New Zealand Wealth Management business recorded a 29% drop in net cash flows and steady AUM. The AMP Bank business' total loan book continued to be managed for value, leading to a modest 1.3% increase to $23.8 billion. AMP Bank's total deposits came in at $20.8 billion, up slightly from $20.5 billion in the second quarter.

Following the announcement, Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) issued a note to investors updating them on its stance regarding AMP shares.

Here's what the broker had to say.

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What next for AMP shares?

Macquarie has confirmed its neutral rating on AMP shares. It has also raised its 12-month target price to $1.80 per share, up from $1.72 per share earlier this month.

At the time of writing, this represents a potential 0.6% upside for investors over the next 12 months.

"Valuation: We lift our 12-month price target by 5% to A$1.80, from A$1.72, based on a blended DCF/PE methodology," the broker said in its note.

"Neutral. To become more bullish, we need to see a live walk-through of the "best in class technology platform"."

What else did Macquarie have to say?

The broker's analysts noted that AMP's 3Q FY25 update highlighted an improvement in net flows in the Platforms division. But it also said that no comment was provided on net interest margin, as is normally the case when AMP issues a quarterly update.

Macquarie also made some other key observations about what was missing from the update.

"No comment was made about strategic plans for the Bank, and…AMP's MyNorth Lifetime product on the platform is now at $579m ($465m at 2Q25). Earnings changes: Raise earnings for FY25E/26E by 2.5%/6.4%, respectively, and by ~7% thereafter, to reflect stronger flows in platforms," Macquarie said.

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Macquarie Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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