Evolution Mining shares slip despite massive cash flow boost

Strong commodity prices have this major gold and copper producer swimming in extra cash flow.

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Key points

  • Evolution Mining has had to revise its cash flow predictions due to high commodity prices.
  • The company will generate more than half a billion dollars in extra cash flow.
  • Evolution is also delivering operationally, reiterating its production estimates.

Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN) will generate more than half a billion dollars in extra cash flow this year due to the surging price of gold and copper, the company said in a trading update on Wednesday.

But the good news didn't stop the shares from drifting lower in early trade on Wednesday, with the shares down 1.4% to $11.26.

The Evolution share price is still trading near its 12-month high of $11.73 however, and shareholders are sitting on gains of more than 100% for the year.

Evolution Mining had previously said, while releasing a record profit result in August, that it expected to generate $2.75 billion in operating cash flow from its mines.

Rampaging gold price prompts rethink

The company based this projection on an Australian dollar gold price of $5140 per ounce and a copper price of $15,000 per tonne.

But the company has had to revisit these numbers, as the gold price surges ever higher.

Evolution said on Wednesday it was now using a gold price estimate for the year of $6100 per ounce, and $16,500 per tonne of copper.

This would translate into a projected upside to cash flow of about $570 million, the company said.

The company said in its quarterly report:

At the FY26 production guidance mid-point and current spot price, estimated operating mine cash flow is expected to increase from $2755 million to $3325 million and mine cash flow before major capital is expected to increase from $2515 million to $3085 million

Evolution said its balance sheet was also strong, with gearing at just 11% and all of its bank term loans now repaid, and no debt repayments would come due until the 2029 financial year.

The company's cash balance had increased to $780 million following debt repayments of $170 million during the quarter.

ASX gold stock on track to deliver this year

On the operational front, the company said it was on track to deliver its FY26 production and cost guidance, having produced 174,000 ounces of gold during the quarter and 18,000 tonnes of copper.

Evolution Managing Director Lawrie Conway said the company continued to execute its plans safely and reliably.

We are generating significant cashflow, enabling further financial deleveraging and our gearing improved to 11%. Our excellent safety performance continues to be an important leading indicator of operational delivery. Our projects are also advancing well and remain on schedule.

The ASX gold stock said it had minimal gold hedging in place, meaning it would get the benefit of high spot gold prices.

The company in August reported a record net profit of $926 million.

The company's full year production guidance is for 710,000 to 780,000 ounces of gold and 70,000 to 80,000 tonnes of copper.

Motley Fool contributor Cameron England has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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