New Hope Corporation Ltd (ASX: NHC) shares have significantly underperformed the benchmark over the past year.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) coal stock closed down 0.51% on Monday, trading for $3.90 apiece.
That sees the miner's share price down 24% since this time last year, compared to the 7.6% gains posted by the ASX 200.
Although this doesn't include the 34 cents per share in fully franked dividends New Hope has paid eligible shareholders over the full year. At Monday's closing price, that sees the ASX 200 coal stock trading on a fully franked trailing dividend yield of 8.7%.
New Hope shares have faced stiff headwinds amid a material decline in global coal prices.
Twelve months ago, thermal coal was trading for just over US$150 per tonne. After sliding to US$94 per tonne in April, coal has gradually rebounded to trade for US$104 per tonne at market close yesterday.
Which brings us back to our headline question…
Are New Hope shares now a bargain buy?
EnviroInvest's Elio D'Amato recently ran his slide rule over the ASX 200 coal miner (courtesy of The Bull).
"The coal producer reported a strong performance in fiscal year 2025. It delivered increased production and an appealing final fully franked dividend of 15 cents a share," D'Amato said.
However, New Hope's juicy dividend yield isn't enough to win D'Amato over.
"In our view, coal faces secular decline pressures and policy risk is intensifying," said D'Amato, who has a sell recommendation on New Hope shares.
"In our opinion, upside from capital returns and cyclical gains is modest relative to long term structural risks," he concluded.
What's the latest from the ASX 200 coal stock?
As D'Amato mentioned above, New Hope's FY 2025 results were impressive in the face of difficult market conditions.
The market appeared to agree as well, with New Hope shares closing up 5.1% on 16 September, the day of the results release.
Highlights included an 18.1% year-on-year increase in saleable coal production to 10.7 million tonnes.
Pleasingly, costs also came down, with the coal miner reporting an 8.4% decline in Free on Board (FOB) cash costs to $82.4 per tonne.
But with coal prices sliding during the financial year, earnings and profits still went backwards.
New Hope reported underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of $765.8 million for FY 2025, down 10.9% from FY 2024. On the bottom line, FY 2025 net profit after tax (NPAT) slipped 7.7% year on year to $439.4 million.
Commenting on those results sending New Hope shares higher on the day, CEO Rob Bishop said, "Despite navigating logistics constraints, periods of wet weather and a lower coal pricing environment, we've delivered a strong performance for the 2025 financial year."
