Why is the Treasury Wine share price plunging 14% on Monday?

ASX investors are pummelling Treasury Wine shares today. But why?

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Key points

  • Treasury Wine Estates shares plummeted more than 10% after management withdrew FY 2026 earnings guidance due to market uncertainties.
  • The company paused its on-market share buyback program, citing the need for clarity in trading conditions.
  • Despite the share price fall, Treasury Wine maintains a strong capital structure with significant liquidity.

The Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) share price is getting hammered today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) global wine company closed on Friday trading for $6.98. In morning trade on Monday, shares plunged to $5.99 each, down 14.2%. After some likely bargain hunting, shares are now changing hands for $6.23 apiece, down 10.7%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.7% at this same time today, as investors mull over the ramifications of the escalating US-China trade spat.

Here's what else is dragging on the Treasury Wine share price today.

Earnings guidance withdrawn

ASX investors are hitting their sell buttons after the company released an FY 2026 performance expectations update.

Judging by the big sell-down in the Treasury Wine share price, this clearly has fallen well short of the market's existing expectations.

When the company released its FY 2025 results, it reported FY 2026 guidance for low-to-middle-double digit growth in earnings before interest and tax and significant items (EBITS) for its Penfolds segment. The company also forecast "modest" EBITS growth for its Treasury Americas business.

Among the headwinds battering the ASX 200 stock today, management withdrew that FY 2026 earnings guidance across the group, citing continued uncertainty in its core markets.

"Given the uncertainty that remains as to the outlook, TWE is not in a position to provide revised guidance at this point in time," management noted.

And the Treasury Wine share price is facing additional pressure after management said the same uncertainty led them to pause the company's on-market share buyback.

In August, the ASX 200 stock announced an on-market share buyback of up to $200 million. To date, the company has repurchased $30.5 million of its shares, or around 15% of the intended amount.

"As is appropriate and prudent, the on-market share buy-back will be paused until there is greater clarity around trading conditions and expectations," management stated.

They added:

Treasury Wine Estates retains a strong and flexible capital structure, with approximately $1.0 billion of liquidity currently on hand and with significant headroom to the financial covenants under its borrowing arrangements.

There was no word on the outlook for FY 2026 dividends. Following today's pullback, Treasury Wine stock currently trades on a 6.4% partly franked trailing dividend yield.

The company's Annual General Meeting will be held this Thursday, 16 October.

Treasury Wine share price snapshot

It's been a rough year for the Treasury Wine share price. With today's big intraday fall factored in, shares in the ASX 200 stock are down 49.3% since this time last year.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Treasury Wine Estates. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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