Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) shares are charging higher today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) lithium miner and diversified resources producer closed yesterday trading for $44.67. As we head into the Friday lunch hour, shares are swapping hands for $46.39 apiece, up 3.9%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is down 0.1% at this same.
Over the longer term, Mineral Resources shares remain down 9.8% since this time last year and down some 50% from their January 2023 all-time closing highs amid ongoing weakness in global lithium prices.
That's a look in the rearview.
Now, here's what the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) expect in the year ahead.
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What now for Mineral Resources shares?
In Macquarie's new 'Diversified Miners Preview' report, the broker said it expects Mineral Resources has ramped up its iron ore sales Onslow Iron Project in Western Australia in the first quarter of FY 2026.
Macquarie noted:
Our 1QFY26 estimates for MIN are positive, with a +11% beat on Onslow sales (~8.3Mt) vs consensus (VA) of ~7.4Mt. Pilbara Hub shipments are in line with VA at ~2.4Mt. We are also in line with VA on lithium, with overall Li shipment from Wodgina/Mt Marion of 127kt vs. VA of 128kt.
Despite forecasting a 29% quarter-on-quarter increase in iron ore shipments, Macquarie maintained its underperform rating on Mineral Resources shares.
According to the broker:
QoQ, iron ore shipments (on our estimates) are forecast to be up strongly (+44%) driven by the continued Onslow ramp-up, marginally offset by weaker production from the Pilbara Hub (-6%). We expect net iron ore shipments to be up 29% (100% basis).
When Mineral Resources reported its FY 2025 results, management also provided FY 2026 guidance.
The ASX 200 mining stock's FY 2026 capex is $1.1 billion, with about half to be invested at Onslow Iron and the remaining relating to sustaining capex. Management forecasts the company's Mining Services division will deliver production volumes of 305 to 325 million tonnes (Mt), which would equate to 12.5% volume growth.
As for the struggling lithium segment, that's been throwing up headwinds for Mineral Resources shares, the miner said it is focused on cost reductions and efficiencies to "ensure the business is well positioned to benefit when [lithium] prices recover".
Commenting on that guidance, Macquarie said:
In terms of FY26 guidance, we are aligned with MIN's mid-point guidance across all production/opex metrics for iron ore/lithium. We note difference in our FY26 Capex estimate of ~1.0B, which is slightly below MIN's mid-point guidance of ~A$1.14b (VA: ~A $1.15b).
Connecting the dots, Macquarie has a $43.63 price target on Mineral Resources shares. That's about 6% below current levels.
