ASX healthcare share Summerset Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: SNZ) has come roaring back since the release of its third-quarter results on Tuesday.
If you're not familiar with Summerset, the New Zealand-based company develops, owns, and operates integrated retirement villages. While most of those are in New Zealand, Summerset is currently developing its first retirement villages in Australia, with significant growth plans.
On 6 October, the day before the third-quarter results announcement, Summerset shares were down 19.9% year to date, trading at $9.61 on the ASX. (The company is also listed on the New Zealand stock exchange.)
Since then, the ASX healthcare share has leapt 6.14%, closing on Wednesday trading for $10.20 a share. (Or NZD$11.75 on the NZX.) That gives the company a market cap of $2.47 billion.
And according to the team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), the Summerset share price, and its market cap, could keep running higher from here.
We'll look at why the broker is bullish on the company in a tick. But first…
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What did Summerset report for its Q3 results?
The Summerset share price closed up 3.5% on Monday after the ASX healthcare share reported record quarterly sales.
The three-month period saw Summerset achieve 420 total occupation rights sales, comprised of 244 new sales and 176 resales.
The company enjoyed strong demand across its portfolio, with its regional villages outperforming.
As for its Australian growth ambitions, Summerset plans to open a new village centre, located in Cranbourne North, Victoria, by the end of 2026. The ASX healthcare share has also broken ground on its fourth village in Victoria, at Oakleigh South.
Commenting on the strong quarterly results, Summerset CEO Scott Scoullar said, "We've worked hard throughout the business to bring new residents into our villages, it's pleasing to achieve our highest ever sales quarter in this difficult market."
Macquarie tips ASX healthcare share to outperform
Having reviewed Summerset's quarterly update, Macquarie noted:
Resales volumes were 176 for the quarter (90 ILU, 42 SA, 44 MC/CS), which maintained momentum from 2Q and up around 10% on pcp. Serviced apartments were the main weak spot with this being the lower quarter since the start of 2024, but 3Q settlements were broadly consistent with contracts on hand at 1H. ILU settlements YTD are up around 14%, which is broadly tracking the lift in housing market turnover.
The broker raised its FY 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimate by 0.7% and maintained its outperform rating.
Macquarie said the ASX healthcare share "continues on a trajectory to deliver strong sales and NTA growth which we think underpins positive share price outlook".
The broker has a 12-month price target on Summerset of NZD$16.00 per share. That's more than 36% above Wednesday's closing price on the NZX.
Atop the potential share price gains, Summerset shares also trade on a 1.8% unfranked dividend yield.
