Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) shares have always been very popular among ASX retail investors.
As Australia's leading telecommunications business measured by both network coverage and subscriber numbers, it is a very well known Australian company.
Over the past five years, Telstra has generated very attractive returns.
The company has risen 76% over that timeframe, with a significant portion of those returns (nearly 26%) generated in the past year.
The company also offers a very attractive dividend yield of 3.89%.
Understandably, Telstra's recent performance has heightened investor interest in the ASX 200 communications company. Given its strong capital growth and high yield, it has come under the radar of those looking for both capital growth and passive income.
Given its track record, are Telstra shares still likely to deliver market-beating returns from here?
The recent Optus outage
The telecommunications sector has been in focus lately, following Optus' outage last month.
In a 13 September research note, "Optus-ing out: outage impacts for TLS & TPG", Macquarie discussed how this event could impact Telstra shares.
In particular, the broker predicted Optus would suffer from brand damage and churn. Macquarie also forecasted that every 1% of Optus mobile service in operation (SIO) churn presents 36bps of upside to Telstra's share price.
The future of Telstra
Last week, The Motley Fool's Tristan Harrison discussed Telstra's role in the future of Australian society and competitive advantage.
He noted that Telstra has played a crucial role in Australian life for decades. This role is only likely to grow stronger, in line with increased technological adoption.
Telstra's competitive advantage is underpinned by its investment in its 5G network, and progress on 6G.
However, just because a business has a strong competitive position, doesn't necessarily mean it's necessarily a good investment today. The valuation must also be attractive.
Telstra as an investment today
After reviewing its FY25 result, JP Morgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) provided its view on the business and its outlook.
JP Morgan said Telstra's FY25 result was largely in line with its expectations, while FY26 guidance was mixed.
Mobile earnings grew 5%, mainly driven by increased average revenue per user (ARPU), which the investment bank expects to continue in FY26.
However, it was also noted that subscriber growth decelerated in the second half of FY25, which JP Morgan attributed to increased competition.
JP Morgan increased its price target on Telstra shares from $4.65 to $4.75.
Yesterday, Telstra shares closed at $4.88. This suggests returns will remain relatively flat over the next year, when also factoring in Telstra's dividend.
According to JP Morgan, investors should wait for a more attractive entry point before buying Telstra shares.
