Big 4 bank shares have experienced robust growth over the past 12 months.
The share price rises have mainly been driven by strong property market and mortgage demand, combined with investor demand for dividends and payouts.
Here's how Australia's big 4 banks have performed over the past 12 months, according to the share price at the time of writing:
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price has climbed 23.89% over the past year and is currently trading at $165.20 per share.
Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares have experienced similar annual growth, up 23.3% to $38.425 each.
The National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) share price is 17.68% higher at $43.695.
And the big 4 Aussie bank with the lowest year-on-year growth is ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ). Its shares are 9.22% higher for the year at $32.92 a piece.
Some investors are optimistic that these price trends might continue, but Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) continues to be underweight on Australia's bank sector.
Here's why.
Macquarie's latest ratings on the big 4 banks
In a recent note to investors, the broker confirmed its underperform rating on CBA and Westpac shares.
It has a target price of $106 on CBA shares. This represents a potential 35.8% downside for investors over the next 12 months, at the time of writing. The broker also has a target price of $31 on Westpac shares, which represents a potential downside of 19.3%.
Macquarie has a $37.5 12-month target price on NAB shares. This represents a potential 14.2% downside at the time of writing.
The broker also has a $32.5 target price on ANZ, which represents a much smaller potential downside of just 1.3%.
Here's what Macquarie had to say
"While we recently upgraded our views on credit quality, we continue to see downside to bank earnings from lower margins and our cash earnings forecasts remain 1-2% below consensus in FY26E and 4-6% below in FY27E," the broker said in its investor note.
"That said, at the margin, stronger credit growth, and the potential for a shallower easing cycle present potential upside risk. However, given the weak revenue outlook, we remain Underweight the banks sector, with ANZ and NAB (both Neutral) remaining our preferred exposures."
Macquarie explained that ANZ is underperforming peers, growing its "balance sheet below system" on housing credit, business credit, and household deposits. The broker said this could highlight business disruptions.
Meanwhile, Westpac has improved housing credit growth around 4% and CBA and NAB continue to lead, growing at around 5% to 6%.
The broker also noted that housing credit growth continues to show signs of acceleration, lifting to around 7% annualised.
"This has largely been driven by strength in investor lending which has accelerated to >8%. With the First Home Guarantee Scheme expanding [on 1 October], we see upside risk to near-term housing credit growth."
