This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.
Key Points
- Robotaxis should have a big effect on shares next year.
- Two critical moneymakers likely won't exist in 2026.
It has been a rollercoaster year for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) investors. At one point, shares were down nearly 40%. After a huge rally, however, shares are now up in value by 13% on the year.
What's in store for 2026? There are three major moving pieces every electric car stock investor should be monitoring.
Can robotaxis create $1 trillion in value for Tesla in 2026?
Some experts are extremely bullish on Tesla's robotaxi opportunity. This summer, the company launched a pilot version of the long-awaited autonomous taxi service in Austin, Texas. The launch came after nearly a decade of promises from CEO Elon Musk. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives was immediately impressed. "Going into it, we expected to be impressed," he told clients after trying the service out personally. "But walking away from it, all there is to say is that this is the future." He thinks robotaxis could help Tesla reach a $2 trillion market cap by the end of 2026.
Major Tesla investor Cathie Wood, meanwhile, thinks that the global opportunity for robotaxis could eventually be worth $5 trillion to $10 trillion. Wood predicts that robotaxis will account for 90% of Tesla's value by 2030, a year in which she thinks Tesla's share price will surpass $2,500.
The market is excited about Tesla's robotaxi dreams. They're a big reason why shares trade at such a lofty premium to competitors like Rivian and Lucid Group. But the road will be difficult. After several months, Tesla has yet to expand its robotaxi service beyond Austin, Texas. The existing service, meanwhile, is geofenced to a fairly limited area. The company reportedly has been planning a San Francisco expansion, but regulators have yet to sign off on any real-world plans.
It will likely take years for Tesla's own technology to catch up to its promises. The robotaxi service in Texas, for instance, still uses human overseers during operation. Confusingly, Musk has told Bay Area officials that Tesla's service launch in that region will not involve autonomous vehicles.
Whatever the case, it's possible that investor enthusiasm could force Tesla's market cap above $2 trillion by the end of 2026. But this rise likely won't stem from huge leaps and bounds in real-world adoption.
Don't expect either of these game-changers next year
We have a bit more clarity on two things not to expect from Tesla in 2026.
Earlier this year, the U.S. government ended several electric vehicle subsidies. First, it axed a tax credit for buyers of EVs, a credit worth up to $7,500 per purchase. This move will almost certainly suppress EV demand next year. The second subsidy the government ended dealt with automotive regulatory credits. These credits were earned by selling low-emission vehicles, and then sold at nearly 100% profit margins to manufacturers that did not produce enough low-emission vehicles.
For more than a decade, Tesla has generated billions in extra profit from the sale of these credits. Starting next year, newly acquired credits will have essentially zero value. That's because fines for non-compliance will be eliminated, taking away any incentive for other manufacturers to purchase Tesla's credits.
Without these two subsidies -- both of which provide meaningful contributions to Tesla's top and bottom lines -- 2026 could be a doozy. This is on top of a weak year for Tesla, with sales expected to fall by 5% this fiscal year.
Which factor will the market value most -- rising robotaxi ambitions, or financial pressure in Tesla's core business? The answer to this question will likely explain the movement of shares next year.
This article was originally published on Fool.com. All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.
