Incredibly, the Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) share price has tripled the capital growth of the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) after the last 12 months. It's a good time to ask whether the ASX bank share is a buy.
Westpac shares have soared 22% in the past year, while the ASX 200 has only climbed by 7.4%.
Past performance is certainly not a guarantee of future performance, particularly when it comes to a return of that scale.
With factors turning to favour the ASX bank share, it's no wonder Westpac shares have jumped as they have. Could it keep going? Let's take a look.
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Rising profit
I often say that share prices tend to follow earnings over time, so if the earnings are going in the right direction, then that's a powerful tailwind for capital gains in the long term. In many ways, profit is the most important factor to consider if the Westpac share price is appealing today.
The latest update from Westpac showed promising progress for the ASX bank share. Westpac reported that in the third quarter of FY25, it generated $1.9 billion of statutory net profit after tax (NPAT).
The $1.9 billion represented a 14% increase on the FY25 first-half quarterly average, or an 8% increase excluding notable items. Pre-provision profit increased by 6% with revenue growing 6% and expenses rising 3%.
Westpac reported that its net interest income (NII) increased 4%, largely due to the increase in the net interest margin (NIM), which is a measure of how much profit a bank is making on its lending, including the cost of the funding for its loans.
Westpac said its core NIM improved 5 basis points (0.05%) to 1.85%. That was despite a shift in savers to lower-margin savings accounts and competition for term deposits. There was also competition on the loans side of things.
The ASX bank share also said that ongoing operating momentum drove customer deposit growth of $10 billion and gross loan growth of $15 billion. Excluding RAMS, Australian housing loans grew 1%, business loans grew 5%, and institutional loans grew 2%.
Westpac also reported non-interest income growth of 6%, supported by stronger markets revenue.
Is the Westpac share price a buy?
Following RBA rate cuts, Westpac is seeing positive trends with improving credit quality metrics. This is helping improve the ASX bank share's profitability. Lower rates could also help drive stronger credit demand.
But, rate cuts can also theoretically be a headwind for Westpac's earnings on transaction account balances. On these zero-interest accounts, a higher RBA rate meant it could lend out that money at a higher interest rate.
However, stubborn inflation in Australia may be high enough after a recent reading to keep interest rates higher for longer, allowing Westpac to earn more interest income than expected, which is another positive.
On top of that, Westpac is working on its costs as it pursues targeted productivity initiatives to limit cost growth.
Overall, a lot of factors have turned in Westpac's favour, so it's not surprising the Westpac share price has surged.
It's now valued at 18x FY25's estimated earnings, according to the forecast on Commsec. Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to only rise by a further 4% in FY26. FY25 seems positive, but FY26 doesn't suggest much progress. I'd be happy as a long-term shareholder, but I'd focus new investment money elsewhere.
